CAJ | 학술논문

文章为避免M2/GDP偏高解释的不完整性，通过引入“信贷”变量构建了一个能够反映货币结构、存款货币资产化、货币乘数和GDP/贷款变化的系统性分析框架。首先证明了GDP/贷款值的下降是造成M2/GDP偏高的一个最重要因素。原因是边际资本-产出比率的下降和投资在转化为资本的过程中出现的“沉淀”现象，还有投资乘数的持续走低和贷款余额过度积累所造成的乘数压缩效应，使贷款的边际GDP下降。
문장위피면M2/GDP편고해석적불완정성，통과인입“신대”변량구건료일개능구반영화폐결구、존관화폐자산화、화폐승수화GDP/대관변화적계통성분석광가。수선증명료GDP/대관치적하강시조성M2/GDP편고적일개최중요인소。원인시변제자본-산출비솔적하강화투자재전화위자본적과정중출현적“침정”현상，환유투자승수적지속주저화대관여액과도적루소조성적승수압축효응，사대관적변제GDP하강。
In order to avoid the incomplete interpretation of high M 2/GDP ,through the introduction of the“credit” variables ,the paper constructed an analysis framework to reflect a monetary structure ,deposit money assets ,monetary multiplier and “GDP/credit”changes .We first proved the dropped“GDP/loan”value was one of the most important factors causing high M 2/GDP .Causes were that the lower“marginal capital output ratio” and the“settling” phenomenon of the investment .And what make the marginal GDP loans decline are the investment multiplier continues to decline and the compressed multiplier effect caused by a large number of loans in excessive accumulation .