CAJ | 학술논문

渤海湾海岸带土地利用在过去20年间经历了巨大变化，与区域社会经济发展关系密切。针对渤海湾海岸带1989～2008年土地利用变化，使用主成份-多元回归分析法、灰色关联度分别对其时间变化和空间分异与社会经济因子的联系进行分析。结果证明城市化、工业化与居民点及工矿用地、交通用地、咸水水体存在相互促进作用；而农业发展滞后和经济结构不合理等因素与耕地和未利用地的减少密切相关；主成份分析法和多元回归相结合能更好地解释土地利用变化与社会经济的宏观联系，灰色关联法能揭示它们之间的具体关联。
발해만해안대토지이용재과거20년간경력료거대변화，여구역사회경제발전관계밀절。침대발해만해안대1989～2008년토지이용변화，사용주성빈-다원회귀분석법、회색관련도분별대기시간변화화공간분이여사회경제인자적련계진행분석。결과증명성시화、공업화여거민점급공광용지、교통용지、함수수체존재상호촉진작용；이농업발전체후화경제결구불합리등인소여경지화미이용지적감소밀절상관；주성빈분석법화다원회귀상결합능경호지해석토지이용변화여사회경제적굉관련계，회색관련법능게시타문지간적구체관련。
The land use along the coastal zone of Bohai bay experienced huge changes in the recent 20 years, which are close-ly related to regional social and economic development. Using principal component-multiple regression method and grey correla-tion analysis, the quantitative analysis socio-economic associated factors of temporal and spatial land-use changes in the coastal zone of Bohai bay from 1989 to 2008 is carried out respectively. Results showed that 1) urbanization and industrialization have mutual promotion effects with residential and industrial land, transportation land and salt -water body; 2) the development lagging of agriculture and problem of economic structure have close relationship with the decrease of farmland and unused land;3) the combination of principal component and multiple regression can explain the macroscale relationship between land-use change and socio-economic background, while grey relational analysis can reveal the particular link between them.