CAJ | 학술논문

2008年爆发的全球金融危机，使全球经济遭受了巨大的冲击。入境旅游一定程度上是世界经济的晴雨表。本文应用ARMA模型、游客集中度系数、亲景度和市场竞争态等定量方法，评估了金融危机对广东省入境旅游经济的总体影响，分析了危机对其入境旅游客源市场结构变化情况。结果表明，金融危机使广东入境游客量和旅游外汇收入比预期正常值分别降低了6%~15%和0.7%~1.1%，入境游客量和减少幅度超过旅游外汇收入减少幅度；危机使入境旅游游客集中度明显提高，增加了广东对少数几个入境客源地的依赖程度；在金融危机背景下，广东省在全国对入境客源的竞争力一定程度上受到了其他旅游目的地的挤压。最后，有针对性地提出了广东拓展入境客源市场的思路和策略。
2008년폭발적전구금융위궤，사전구경제조수료거대적충격。입경여유일정정도상시세계경제적청우표。본문응용ARMA모형、유객집중도계수、친경도화시장경쟁태등정량방법，평고료금융위궤대광동성입경여유경제적총체영향，분석료위궤대기입경여유객원시장결구변화정황。결과표명，금융위궤사엄동입경유객량화여유외회수입비예기정상치분별강저료6%~15%화0.7%~1.1%，입경유객량화감소폭도초과여유외회수입감소폭도；위궤사입경여유유객집중도명현제고，증가료엄동대소수궤개입경객원지적의뢰정도；재금융위궤배경하，광동성재전국대입경객원적경쟁력일정정도상수도료기타여유목적지적제압。최후，유침대성지제출료엄동탁전입경객원시장적사로화책략。
In 2008, the outbreak of the international financial crisis has made the global economy suffered massive negative effects. To some extent, the inbound tourism is a barometer of the world economy. This paper evaluated the total impact of international financial crisis on inbound tourism economy of Guangdong Province, and analyzed the inbound tourist market structure changes by the ARMA model, the tourist concentration coefficient, the preference scale, the competition state and other quantitative methods. The results showed that, the financial crisis has made the inbound tourists and foreign exchange earnings from tourism respectively decreased by 6~15% and 0.7~1.1% than the expected normal values; The crisis has caused the inbound tourism tourists concentration degree improving obviously, and increased the dependency of Guangdong to several inbound tourists; Under the background of financial crisis, the inbound tourism competitiveness of Guangdong Province was squeezed by other tourist destinations of our country. Finally, this paper proposed the development thought and strategy of inbound tourist market of Guangdong.