CAJ | 학술논문

交通运输系统是一个复杂的大系统，也是一个时变非线性系统。基于交通运输系统的复杂性，论文将非线性动力学理论和方法、稳定性理论与交通工程学相结合，建立了各种交通运输方式在综合系数为时变时的自组织演化动力学模型。对只有两种运输方式（公路运输和铁路运输）的情形进行了稳定性分析和演化态势分析，并通过数值仿真验证了理论分析结果。结果表明：两种运输方式的竞争合作系统的演化方向存在多种可能，演化结果与竞争合作效应紧密相关。努力放大系统中的合作效应，使有益的运行模式逐渐占据优势可以引导系统向正确的方向不断发展。
교통운수계통시일개복잡적대계통，야시일개시변비선성계통。기우교통운수계통적복잡성，논문장비선성동역학이론화방법、은정성이론여교통공정학상결합，건립료각충교통운수방식재종합계수위시변시적자조직연화동역학모형。대지유량충운수방식（공로운수화철로운수）적정형진행료은정성분석화연화태세분석，병통과수치방진험증료이론분석결과。결과표명：량충운수방식적경쟁합작계통적연화방향존재다충가능，연화결과여경쟁합작효응긴밀상관。노력방대계통중적합작효응，사유익적운행모식축점점거우세가이인도계통향정학적방향불단발전。
Transportation system is a complex large system, but also is a time-varying nonlinear system. Based on the complexity of transportation system, combining the nonlinear dynamic theory and methods, stability theory with traffic engineering, the dynamic model of the self-organizing evolvement about varies transportation modes based on time-variant comprehensive coefficient is established with system dynamics. Then it analyzes the stability and evolvement trend of the model combined by two transportation(railway transportation and road transportation) modes and Simulation results validate ones of the theoretical analysis. The results indicate that the evolvement directions of the competition and cooperation system of two transportation modes have multi-possibility and close relationship with the competition and cooperation effect. The system can be optimized by the magnification of the cooperative effects to make the beneficial patterns occupy predominance.