CAJ | 학술논문

对液力耦合器（liquid coupling device，LCD）的两阶段退化过程进行可靠性建模及评估。液力耦合器退化过程中呈现出明显的两阶段特性，即 LCD 在退化过程中存在某一时刻，在该时刻前后，LCD 分别服从不同的退化过程。传统做法只基于第二阶段进行可靠性分析，丢失了第一阶段的信息。鉴于此，建立两阶段维纳退化过程模型，并推导出该模型下的可靠度函数；同时，基于 Schwarz 信息准则（Schwarz information criterion，SIC），获得模型变点的估计。最后，运用所建模型对 LCD 实例进行可靠性评估，并与传统做法进行对比分析。结果表明该模型对 LCD 退化过程拟合效果良好，且给出更为可信的评估结果。
대액력우합기（liquid coupling device，LCD）적량계단퇴화과정진행가고성건모급평고。액력우합기퇴화과정중정현출명현적량계단특성，즉 LCD 재퇴화과정중존재모일시각，재해시각전후，LCD 분별복종불동적퇴화과정。전통주법지기우제이계단진행가고성분석，주실료제일계단적신식。감우차，건립량계단유납퇴화과정모형，병추도출해모형하적가고도함수；동시，기우 Schwarz 신식준칙（Schwarz information criterion，SIC），획득모형변점적고계。최후，운용소건모형대 LCD 실례진행가고성평고，병여전통주법진행대비분석。결과표명해모형대 LCD 퇴화과정의합효과량호，차급출경위가신적평고결과。
Reliability modeling and evaluation for the liquid coupling device (LCD)degradation process are studied.There are two phases in the LCD degradation process.That is to say,there is a change-point in the degradation of LCD,and the LCD follows different degradation processes before and after the change-point.Ac-cording to the traditional method,the reliability analysis focuses only on the second phase,which ighores the in-formation of the first phase.In view of this,the two-stage Wiener degradation process model is established,and the reliability function is deduced.The change-point between the two phases is obtained based on the Schwarz information criterion (SIC).Finally,the method is applied to evaluate the reliability of LCD and compared with the traditional method.The results show that the two-phase Wiener degradation model can depict the LCD deg-radation process effectively,and the more believable evaluation result is gained by the proposed method.