统计与信息论坛
統計與信息論罈
통계여신식론단
STATISTICS & INFORMATION TRIBUNE
2014年
8期
106-112
,共7页
高健%孙战文%吴佩林
高健%孫戰文%吳珮林
고건%손전문%오패림
家庭迁移%迁移状态演进%多元Logit模型%扩展的Oaxaca-Blinder分解
傢庭遷移%遷移狀態縯進%多元Logit模型%擴展的Oaxaca-Blinder分解
가정천이%천이상태연진%다원Logit모형%확전적Oaxaca-Blinder분해
family migration%changes of migration stages%multinomial Logit model%Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition
根据山东省951户农民工家庭的调查数据,利用多元Logit模型和扩展的Oaxaca -Blinder分解方法,系统分析了农民工家庭向城镇迁移过程中迁移状态的演进及其影响因素。研究表明,初次离乡和定居城市两种演进形式的实现难度较小,而举家迁移和直接定居城市两种演进形式的实现难度较大;农民工家庭劳动力的城镇务工状况及其农村经济状况是影响农民工家庭迁移状态演进的决定性因素。
根據山東省951戶農民工傢庭的調查數據,利用多元Logit模型和擴展的Oaxaca -Blinder分解方法,繫統分析瞭農民工傢庭嚮城鎮遷移過程中遷移狀態的縯進及其影響因素。研究錶明,初次離鄉和定居城市兩種縯進形式的實現難度較小,而舉傢遷移和直接定居城市兩種縯進形式的實現難度較大;農民工傢庭勞動力的城鎮務工狀況及其農村經濟狀況是影響農民工傢庭遷移狀態縯進的決定性因素。
근거산동성951호농민공가정적조사수거,이용다원Logit모형화확전적Oaxaca -Blinder분해방법,계통분석료농민공가정향성진천이과정중천이상태적연진급기영향인소。연구표명,초차리향화정거성시량충연진형식적실현난도교소,이거가천이화직접정거성시량충연진형식적실현난도교대;농민공가정노동력적성진무공상황급기농촌경제상황시영향농민공가정천이상태연진적결정성인소。
Based on 951 household survey data of migrant workers'families in Shandong province ,this paper uses multinomial Logit model and Oaxaca -Blinder decomposition to analyze the changes of migrant workers'family migration stages and its influential factors .On the basis of the previous theory and study , migration process is decomposed into four stages .The results show that it is not difficult for the changes from the first stage to the second stage and from the third to the fourth ,comparatively difficult for the changes from the second stage to the third and the fourth .The status of the urban migrant workers and rural economic situation play a decisive role in the changes of migrant workers'family migration stages .