CAJ | 학술논문

利用历年气象资料，运用数理统计方法，分析了湖北省1951-2010年水稻高温热害的动态变化，探讨了气候变化背景下高温热害的演变趋势与规律。结果表明，鄂东部、江汉平原部分地区水稻高温热害发生趋于频繁，且除西南部地区外的湖北省其他地区水稻高温热害最大概率出现的时间均有明显的提前，甚至每10 a提前1 d以上。最后，利用ArcGIS对湖北省的水稻高温热害变化趋势和风险程度进行了区划。
이용력년기상자료，운용수리통계방법，분석료호북성1951-2010년수도고온열해적동태변화，탐토료기후변화배경하고온열해적연변추세여규률。결과표명，악동부、강한평원부분지구수도고온열해발생추우빈번，차제서남부지구외적호북성기타지구수도고온열해최대개솔출현적시간균유명현적제전，심지매10 a제전1 d이상。최후，이용ArcGIS대호북성적수도고온열해변화추세화풍험정도진행료구화。
Based on the 1951-2010 highest temperature data in Hubei province, the dynamic variations of heat injury are studied by using mathematical statistics method. The results show that the heat injury events on rice occur more frequently in many regions of Hubei province. The occurrence time of maximal heat injury probability presents a significant advance in most area except southwestern Hubei, ahead more than 1 day per 10 years. According to the previous results, the spatial distribution of dynamic variation of heat injury on rice and the degree of risk are zoned by using the ArcGIS software.