CAJ | 학술논문

利用1961-2010年江西省26个气象站逐日气温和降水资料，研究分析鄱阳湖生态经济区历史气候变化事实；基于“中国地区气候变化预估数据集”（Version 3.0）2014-2100年数据，预估未来不同RCP情景下区域气温和降水变化。结果表明，鄱阳湖生态经济区气温呈现显著上升趋势，升温趋势高于江西全省；降水强度呈增强趋势。未来气温依然呈现为上升趋势，如果从现在开始及时有效地采取应对措施，气温的上升趋势将在2040年后得到缓解。如果长时间存在高能源需求及高温室气体排放，则未来降水年际变化更大，极端降水事件发生将更为频繁。
이용1961-2010년강서성26개기상참축일기온화강수자료，연구분석파양호생태경제구역사기후변화사실；기우“중국지구기후변화예고수거집”（Version 3.0）2014-2100년수거，예고미래불동RCP정경하구역기온화강수변화。결과표명，파양호생태경제구기온정현현저상승추세，승온추세고우강서전성；강수강도정증강추세。미래기온의연정현위상승추세，여과종현재개시급시유효지채취응대조시，기온적상승추세장재2040년후득도완해。여과장시간존재고능원수구급고온실기체배방，칙미래강수년제변화경대，겁단강수사건발생장경위빈번。
The 1961-2010 daily temperature and precipitation data of the 26 weather stations around Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone are employed to analyze the facts of climate change in Poyang Eco-economic Zone. Based on the 2014-2100 data from “Chinese Climate Change Projection dataset, Version 3.0”, the future regional temperature and precipitation variations are estimated under different RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone. The conclusions are:(1) The historical temperature in Poyang Eco-economic Zone presents significant ascendant trend , the ascendant trend is more obvious than that in the whole province. And the historical precipitation intensity in Poyang Eco-economic Zone presents significant enhancement;(2) Future temperature will still present an upward trend;(3) The ascendant trend of temperature will slow down after 2040 if the effective measures would be taken from now on;(4) If high energy demand and high greenhouse gas emission exist for a longtime, the interannual variation of future precipitation will be more evident, and extreme precipitation event will become more frequent.