CAJ | 학술논문

目前关于风电可信容量的研究存在风速模型和可靠性指标的选取缺少依据的问题。为此，比较了实测风速法、实测风速均值法、概率抽样法、时间序列分析法所产生的风速序列用于发电系统可靠性评估效果的差异，并分析原因。结合well-being框架内的风险、临界、健康状态的概率、频率、持续时间及失负荷量等可靠性指标，分别应用于风电可信容量评估。利用基于序贯蒙特卡洛模拟的可信容量求解方法，通过加入风电的IEEE-RTS算例，结合2种风速场景，对比分析了不同风速模型和可靠性指标对发电系统可靠性和风电容量可信度评估的影响，并针对评估需求给出选用建议。
목전관우풍전가신용량적연구존재풍속모형화가고성지표적선취결소의거적문제。위차，비교료실측풍속법、실측풍속균치법、개솔추양법、시간서렬분석법소산생적풍속서렬용우발전계통가고성평고효과적차이，병분석원인。결합well-being광가내적풍험、림계、건강상태적개솔、빈솔、지속시간급실부하량등가고성지표，분별응용우풍전가신용량평고。이용기우서관몽특잡락모의적가신용량구해방법，통과가입풍전적IEEE-RTS산례，결합2충풍속장경，대비분석료불동풍속모형화가고성지표대발전계통가고성화풍전용량가신도평고적영향，병침대평고수구급출선용건의。
At present the research on wind power capacity credit is pressed for a foundation in the selection of wind speed models and reliability indices. For this reason, we compare the effects of using observed wind speeds, average observed wind speeds, probability sampling, and time series analysis to assess the reliability of wind integrated generating systems, and the reasons causing the differences are analyzed. Reliability indices such as the probability, frequency, duration, and the amount of lost load under the at-risk, marginal, and healthy states in the well-being framework are applied to the assessment of wind power capacity credit, respectively. Using the solving method for capacity credit based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation, and through the wind integrated IEEE-RTS combining with two scenarios of wind speed, the impacts of different wind speed models and reliability indices on reliability of generating systems and wind power capacity credit are contrasted and analyzed, and according to the demand on the assessment the suggestions on selecting a wind speed model are given.