CAJ | 학술논문

目的探索宝鸡市手足口病发病与气象因素之间的关系，为手足口病预报提供科学依据。方法收集2009-2011年宝鸡市手足口病发病资料和气象资料，利用主成分分析和曲线拟合方法分析数据；参考国内应用比较成熟的其他人体健康气象指数的研究方法，设计手足口病气象危险指数。结果平均气温（X1）、降水量（X2）、平均气压（X3）、平均水汽压（X4）4个气象因素与手足口病发病相关，对其进行主成分分析，利用第1主成分（Z1）与周发病人数（Y）进行曲线拟合，获得发病预测方程 Y ＝1.136＋0.914Z1-0.198Z12-0.210Z13（F ＝30.644，P ＜0.001）。利用预测方程计算宝鸡市区2012年14～30周手足口病周发病预测值，按照手足口病气象危险指数分级标准，模拟预报同期手足口病气象危险指数，共做出17次预报，预报与实际发病指数同级16次，准确率94.12％。结论手足口病气象危险指数对于手足口病综合防控具有一定的实用意义。
목적탐색보계시수족구병발병여기상인소지간적관계，위수족구병예보제공과학의거。방법수집2009-2011년보계시수족구병발병자료화기상자료，이용주성분분석화곡선의합방법분석수거；삼고국내응용비교성숙적기타인체건강기상지수적연구방법，설계수족구병기상위험지수。결과평균기온（X1）、강수량（X2）、평균기압（X3）、평균수기압（X4）4개기상인소여수족구병발병상관，대기진행주성분분석，이용제1주성분（Z1）여주발병인수（Y）진행곡선의합，획득발병예측방정 Y ＝1.136＋0.914Z1-0.198Z12-0.210Z13（F ＝30.644，P ＜0.001）。이용예측방정계산보계시구2012년14～30주수족구병주발병예측치，안조수족구병기상위험지수분급표준，모의예보동기수족구병기상위험지수，공주출17차예보，예보여실제발병지수동급16차，준학솔94.12％。결론수족구병기상위험지수대우수족구병종합방공구유일정적실용의의。
Objective To explore the relationship between hand-food-mouth disease (HFMD)and climatic fac-tors,and provide a scientific basis for HFMD forecast.Methods Data of HFMD incidence and meteorological of Baoji City from 2009 to 2011 were collected,principal component analysis and curve fitting were used to analyze data.HFMD weather index was design and the methods of other human health weather index were referred.Results The four meteorological fac-tors,including average temperatures (X1 ),the precipitation (X2 ),average air pressure (X3 )and average vapor pressure (X4 ),were analyzed by principal component.The first principal component (Z1 )and weekly incidence of HFMD (Y) were used to get incidence prediction equation [Y =1.136 +0.914Z1 -0.198Z1 2 -0.210Z1 3 (F =30.644,P <0.001)] by curve fitting,and to further get predictive value of weekly HFMD incidence from 14th to 30th week in 2012 in Baoji City.In accordance with HFMD meteorological risk index classification standard,17 simulated forecast of HFMD weather risk in-dex of the same period were made in total,among which 16 forecasted values were of the same level as the actual HFMD in-cidence,with accuracy rate of 94.12%.Conclusion HFMD weather index had practically significant implementation in comprehensive prevention and control of HFMD.