CAJ | 학술논문

应用灾害风险形成的理论和方法，通过统计万泉河流域基本气象站1961-2011年的降水资料，实现了对自动站降水数据的估测及历史数据的延长，应用趋势面残差法获取了致灾因子危险性的空间分布，并选取了适合评价小流域暴雨洪涝灾害敏感性、易损性和防灾减灾能力的空间指标，对流域的灾害风险进行了评价。结果表明，万泉河流域暴雨洪涝灾害的危险性分布为西部高于东部，东部的大部分地区处于中等以上风险区，西部则多处于次低以下风险区。东部地区以嘉积县为中心的部分区域的风险为最高，北部岭口镇、翰林镇和大路镇也处于风险高值区。
응용재해풍험형성적이론화방법，통과통계만천하류역기본기상참1961-2011년적강수자료，실현료대자동참강수수거적고측급역사수거적연장，응용추세면잔차법획취료치재인자위험성적공간분포，병선취료괄합평개소류역폭우홍로재해민감성、역손성화방재감재능력적공간지표，대류역적재해풍험진행료평개。결과표명，만천하류역폭우홍로재해적위험성분포위서부고우동부，동부적대부분지구처우중등이상풍험구，서부칙다처우차저이하풍험구。동부지구이가적현위중심적부분구역적풍험위최고，북부령구진、한림진화대로진야처우풍험고치구。
Precipitation estimation of automatic meteorological stations was achieved and historical data were extended by using theory and method of disaster risk formation and analyzing the precipitation data of basic meteorological stations from 1961 to 2011 in Wanquan River, and spatial distribution of hazard was obtained with trend surface and residual method, and the disaster risk was regionalized by selecting spatial indexes which were appropriate for evaluating sensitivity, vulnerability and ability of disaster prevention and reduction with storm and flood disaster in small watershed. The results indicated that western hazard was higher than east, and most of areas in eastern Wanquan River were located regions with risk that was above the average. On the contrary, the risk of west regions was lower than the east. The risk of some areas which center on Jiaji County was highest, and so do the towns of Lingkou, Hanlin and Dalu in the north of watershed.