计算机与现代化
計算機與現代化
계산궤여현대화
COMPUTER AND MODERNIZATION
2014年
8期
110-112,118
,共4页
贸易预测%关联向量机%粒子群优化%混合核
貿易預測%關聯嚮量機%粒子群優化%混閤覈
무역예측%관련향량궤%입자군우화%혼합핵
import and export trade prediction%RVM%PSO optimization%multi-kernel
由于进出口贸易额波动较大，影响因素较多，一般预测算法难以得到较为准确的预测结果。针对该问题，提出基于PSO优化混合RVM模型的贸易预测方法。该方法首先找出影响进出口贸易的指标并通过主成分分析方法提取出指标的主因子作为模型的输入数据。然后在多个不同核函数的单一核RVM模型训练的基础上，根据单一核RVM模型预测误差采用多核加权的方法构建混合核RVM模型，最后通过PSO优化混合核模型参数以提高预测准确性。以深圳进出口贸易预测为例验证该方法能够较为准确地预测进出口贸易值。
由于進齣口貿易額波動較大，影響因素較多，一般預測算法難以得到較為準確的預測結果。針對該問題，提齣基于PSO優化混閤RVM模型的貿易預測方法。該方法首先找齣影響進齣口貿易的指標併通過主成分分析方法提取齣指標的主因子作為模型的輸入數據。然後在多箇不同覈函數的單一覈RVM模型訓練的基礎上，根據單一覈RVM模型預測誤差採用多覈加權的方法構建混閤覈RVM模型，最後通過PSO優化混閤覈模型參數以提高預測準確性。以深圳進齣口貿易預測為例驗證該方法能夠較為準確地預測進齣口貿易值。
유우진출구무역액파동교대，영향인소교다，일반예측산법난이득도교위준학적예측결과。침대해문제，제출기우PSO우화혼합RVM모형적무역예측방법。해방법수선조출영향진출구무역적지표병통과주성분분석방법제취출지표적주인자작위모형적수입수거。연후재다개불동핵함수적단일핵RVM모형훈련적기출상，근거단일핵RVM모형예측오차채용다핵가권적방법구건혼합핵RVM모형，최후통과PSO우화혼합핵모형삼수이제고예측준학성。이심수진출구무역예측위례험증해방법능구교위준학지예측진출구무역치。
Because of high fluctuation and many influence factors , common algorithm cannot get precise predictions .According to the problem, the article presents a new import and export trade prediction algorithm based on multi -kernel RVM model optimized by PSO.Firstly, the article finds factors influencing import and export trade and extracting main factors with PCA .Then on the basis of training of several single kernel RVM models based on different kernel functions , multi-kernel RVM model is built ac-cording to the prediction error .Lastly, parameters of multi-kernel RVM model are optimized by PSO to heighten precision of pre-diction.The emulation experiment shows that this method can gain more accurate prediction result in the prediction of Shenzhen import and export trade .
