CAJ | 학술논문

运用SLEUTH模型模拟在3种不同情景下九龙江口2010-2020年城镇扩展过程，并分析了城镇化过程中区域湿地景观格局的演变趋势。结果表明：研究区城镇扩展主要受自然地理要素与道路建设的影响，环境适当保护方案（MEP）与规划方案（PS）可以有效控制城镇的无序扩张与规模；城镇化使得湿地景观面积迅速减少，且以人工湿地减少为主；不同情景下天然湿地景观格局的演变趋势差异较大，现有发展趋势方案（MSQ）与环境适当保护方案（MEP）下天然湿地景观趋于异质性，而规划方案（PS）下景观趋于均质性；3种方案下人工湿地景观都趋于均质化发展。研究进一步探讨了SLEUTH模型在城镇扩展模拟与预测研究中的适用性。
운용SLEUTH모형모의재3충불동정경하구룡강구2010-2020년성진확전과정，병분석료성진화과정중구역습지경관격국적연변추세。결과표명：연구구성진확전주요수자연지리요소여도로건설적영향，배경괄당보호방안（MEP）여규화방안（PS）가이유효공제성진적무서확장여규모；성진화사득습지경관면적신속감소，차이인공습지감소위주；불동정경하천연습지경관격국적연변추세차이교대，현유발전추세방안（MSQ）여배경괄당보호방안（MEP）하천연습지경관추우이질성，이규화방안（PS）하경관추우균질성；3충방안하인공습지경관도추우균질화발전。연구진일보탐토료SLEUTH모형재성진확전모의여예측연구중적괄용성。
This paper analyzed the evolution trend in the landscape patterns of wetlands during urbanization, using the SLEUTH model to simulate the town growth in 3 different scenarios during the period from 2010 to 2020 in Jiulong River Estuary. The results showed that physical geographical elements and the road construction had a great impact on the urban encroachment, and Moderate Environmental Protection (MEP) and Plan Scenario (PS) had the effective control of the urbanization progress and scale;urbanization resulted in the rapid reduction of the wetland area, especially that of the constructed wetland;landscape patterns evolution trend of the natural wetland differed distinctly from different scenarios, that is in Moderate Environmental Protection (MEP) and Moderate Environmental Protection (MEP) it tended to be heterogeneity while in Plan Scenario (PS) homogeneity;the constructed wetland tended to be homogeneity in all scenarios. This paper also discussed the feasibility of using the SLEUTH model on the study of urbanization simulation.