CAJ | 학술논문

为了全面评估变压器的剩余寿命，从变压器性能衰退的角度和健康指数特性出发，考虑变压器寿命相关因素，采用变压器寿命评估三级系统，给出了变压器历年健康指数计算方法。基于变压器的历年健康指数，在传统马尔科夫预测模型的基础上，建立了改进的马尔科夫预测模型。考虑了不确定性因素对模型的影响，进行了不确定性修正，实现对变压器的寿命预测。通过某火电厂的实际算例验证了评估方法的可行性。
위료전면평고변압기적잉여수명，종변압기성능쇠퇴적각도화건강지수특성출발，고필변압기수명상관인소，채용변압기수명평고삼급계통，급출료변압기력년건강지수계산방법。기우변압기적력년건강지수，재전통마이과부예측모형적기출상，건립료개진적마이과부예측모형。고필료불학정성인소대모형적영향，진행료불학정성수정，실현대변압기적수명예측。통과모화전엄적실제산례험증료평고방법적가행성。
In order to assessment estimate transformer remain life, from the perspective of transformer performance degradation and health indices characteristics, considering the relevant factors of transformer life, based on transformer life assessment three stages systems, , the calculation method of every year health index is put forword. Then considerring the uncertainty factors, an improved Markov prediction model is founded for the prediction of the transformer life. The example verifys verifies the feasibility of this method.