CAJ | 학술논문

基于ArcGIS的样条函数插值利用Mann-Kendall法和R/S分析，对河北省内周边共43个气象站的降水序列进行分析研究。结果表明：在空间分布上，遵化、沧州及石家庄以西为多雨区，坝上为少雨区，降水等值线在山区的梯度较大。在时间分布上，汛期降水占全年降水62％～74％。降水代际呈下降趋势，但20世纪80年代-90年代呈上升之势；而各年代的降水空间分布无明显变化。全省大部分地区降水均呈下降趋势，下降最显著的是石家庄以西地区，达-4 mm/a。全省除沧州、廊坊、石家庄一带大部分地区年降水未来总体趋势和过去趋势一致，持续下降，而沧州、廊坊、石家庄等地未来趋势与过去相反或趋势变化不明显。
기우ArcGIS적양조함수삽치이용Mann-Kendall법화R/S분석，대하북성내주변공43개기상참적강수서렬진행분석연구。결과표명：재공간분포상，준화、창주급석가장이서위다우구，패상위소우구，강수등치선재산구적제도교대。재시간분포상，신기강수점전년강수62％～74％。강수대제정하강추세，단20세기80년대-90년대정상승지세；이각년대적강수공간분포무명현변화。전성대부분지구강수균정하강추세，하강최현저적시석가장이서지구，체-4 mm/a。전성제창주、랑방、석가장일대대부분지구년강수미래총체추세화과거추세일치，지속하강，이창주、랑방、석가장등지미래추세여과거상반혹추세변화불명현。
Based on spline function interpolation of ArcGIS , the paper applied mann-kendall test and res-caled range analysis(R/S) method to research the long -term series of precipitation at 43 meteorological stations in Hebei and neighboring provinces .The results show that in spatial distribution , Zunhua , Cang-zhou and west of Shijiazhuang are the more precipitation regions , but Bashang is the region lack of pre-cipitation .The rainfall isoline gradient of mountains is the larger than rhat of plain areas .In temporal dis-tribution, the 62%~74%of whole year's precipitation is concentrated on flood season .Precipitation of decades is on decline , but it was rising in 1980s and 1990s.Under different decades , the spatial distri-bution of precipitation has no obvious change .Meanwhile , the precipitation presentes a decreasing trend in most parts of Hubei province , especially the west of Shijiazhuang with -4mm/a.In addition, the fu-ture trend of annual precipitation will continue to decline as the past in most parts except Cangzhou , Langfang and Shijiazhuang .