园艺与种苗
園藝與種苗
완예여충묘
Rain Fed Crops
2014年
1期
7-10
,共4页
松墨天牛%发生期%预测预报%逐步回归%DPS软件
鬆墨天牛%髮生期%預測預報%逐步迴歸%DPS軟件
송묵천우%발생기%예측예보%축보회귀%DPS연건
Monochamus alternatus%Emergence period%Prediction%Step regression%The statistic analysis software of DPS
[目的]预测松墨天牛成虫发生期。[方法]根据浙江省仙居县2006-2011年3个试验点林间松墨天牛诱捕记录和当地的气象资料，采用相关系数法和逐步回归法建立松墨天牛发生期预测预报的多元回归模型。[结果]用未参与建模的2012年诱捕数据进行发生期预测效果检验，结果表明有较高的预测精度。[结论]15组数据的预测成功率为80%。
[目的]預測鬆墨天牛成蟲髮生期。[方法]根據浙江省仙居縣2006-2011年3箇試驗點林間鬆墨天牛誘捕記錄和噹地的氣象資料，採用相關繫數法和逐步迴歸法建立鬆墨天牛髮生期預測預報的多元迴歸模型。[結果]用未參與建模的2012年誘捕數據進行髮生期預測效果檢驗，結果錶明有較高的預測精度。[結論]15組數據的預測成功率為80%。
[목적]예측송묵천우성충발생기。[방법]근거절강성선거현2006-2011년3개시험점림간송묵천우유포기록화당지적기상자료，채용상관계수법화축보회귀법건립송묵천우발생기예측예보적다원회귀모형。[결과]용미삼여건모적2012년유포수거진행발생기예측효과검험，결과표명유교고적예측정도。[결론]15조수거적예측성공솔위80%。
[Objective]The aim was to forecast occurring periods of Monochamus alternatus. [Method]Based on data of trap Monochamus alternatus at 3 trapping sites in Xianju County of Zhejiang Province from 2006 to 2011, combining local meteorological data, the multiple linear regression model was established by the methods of correlation coefficients and step regression. [Result] Using this model to predict emergence period of 2012 which were not involved in the model construction, the result indicated that the model has relatively high accuracy. [Conclusion] The prediction success rate was 80%at 15 trap datas.
