热带地理
熱帶地理
열대지리
TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY
2014年
5期
635-642
,共8页
人口密度%时空变化%驱动力%沿海城市
人口密度%時空變化%驅動力%沿海城市
인구밀도%시공변화%구동력%연해성시
population density%spatial-temporal differences%driving factors%coastal city
基于1985-2010年沿海城市人口密度数据，利用ArcGIS和空间统计的方法，分析了1985、1990、1995、2000、2005和2010年6个时间节点沿海城市人口密度的时空变化特征，并探讨了沿海城市人口密度变化的驱动因素。结果表明：1985年以来中国沿海城市人口密度整体上呈现不断增长的趋势，2010年沿海城市常住人口总数为2.64亿人，约占全国总人口的19.70%，平均人口密度在640人/km2左右。人口空间分布差异明显，集中表现为区域中心城市人口密度大，南通市以北地区大部分沿海城市的人口密度小于南通市以南的沿海城市。自然因素、经济因素、城市地位与功能、国家政策以及城市发展历史等是沿海城市人口密度差异的主要驱动因素，其中人口迁入已成为影响人口密度时空变化的最重要驱动力。为进一步促进沿海城市人口的合理分布，建议加强引导沿海地区人口有序流动，积极发展中小城镇，注重提高环境的承载力，促进人口、资源与环境的可持续发展。
基于1985-2010年沿海城市人口密度數據，利用ArcGIS和空間統計的方法，分析瞭1985、1990、1995、2000、2005和2010年6箇時間節點沿海城市人口密度的時空變化特徵，併探討瞭沿海城市人口密度變化的驅動因素。結果錶明：1985年以來中國沿海城市人口密度整體上呈現不斷增長的趨勢，2010年沿海城市常住人口總數為2.64億人，約佔全國總人口的19.70%，平均人口密度在640人/km2左右。人口空間分佈差異明顯，集中錶現為區域中心城市人口密度大，南通市以北地區大部分沿海城市的人口密度小于南通市以南的沿海城市。自然因素、經濟因素、城市地位與功能、國傢政策以及城市髮展歷史等是沿海城市人口密度差異的主要驅動因素，其中人口遷入已成為影響人口密度時空變化的最重要驅動力。為進一步促進沿海城市人口的閤理分佈，建議加彊引導沿海地區人口有序流動，積極髮展中小城鎮，註重提高環境的承載力，促進人口、資源與環境的可持續髮展。
기우1985-2010년연해성시인구밀도수거，이용ArcGIS화공간통계적방법，분석료1985、1990、1995、2000、2005화2010년6개시간절점연해성시인구밀도적시공변화특정，병탐토료연해성시인구밀도변화적구동인소。결과표명：1985년이래중국연해성시인구밀도정체상정현불단증장적추세，2010년연해성시상주인구총수위2.64억인，약점전국총인구적19.70%，평균인구밀도재640인/km2좌우。인구공간분포차이명현，집중표현위구역중심성시인구밀도대，남통시이북지구대부분연해성시적인구밀도소우남통시이남적연해성시。자연인소、경제인소、성시지위여공능、국가정책이급성시발전역사등시연해성시인구밀도차이적주요구동인소，기중인구천입이성위영향인구밀도시공변화적최중요구동력。위진일보촉진연해성시인구적합리분포，건의가강인도연해지구인구유서류동，적겁발전중소성진，주중제고배경적승재력，촉진인구、자원여배경적가지속발전。
Based on population density statistics data of the coastal cities in China during 1985-2010, this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and variation trends of population density in coastal cities by using the tool of ArcGIS and spatial statistics method. The driving factors of the changes of population density are also discussed. The results indicated that the population density of coastal cities showed a rapid growth trend since 1985, the permanent residents of coastal cities in 2010 were 264 million, accounting for about 19.70%of the total population of China. The natural population growth was far less than the mechanical growth in the coastal areas. Differences in spatial distribution of population were very notable, the population densities of regional central cities were larger than those of other cities. Population densities of the cities in northern part of coastal China were lower than those in southern part and the transition city between the two parts was Nantong City. Natural environment, regional economic development, city status and function, government policy and urban development history were the most critical factors on differences of coastal city population density in China. The impact of various factors on the coastal urban population density is relatively complex, among those the social and economic factors are becoming the most critical. In order to further promote the rational distribution of coastal urban population, some suggestions are put forward in the paper, such as strengthening guidance on beneficial and orderly population flow, developing medium and small towns actively, paying more attention to improving the bearing capacity of the environment, promoting the sustainable development of population, resources and environment.
