CAJ | 학술논문

基于1977年-2011年全国高考报名人数、录取人数、人均GDP等数据，根据经济增长与普通高等教育规模（录取人数）的相关关系，运用曲线估计的方法对我国普通高等教育规模进行预测。根据2005年至2011年的高校报名人数、录取人数、应届高中毕业生人数等数据，运用Mingat Alain 和Jeepeng Tan提出的ED （高等教育潜在规模公式）分析当前我国普通高等教育的潜在规模，发现普通高等教育实际规模尚未达到潜在规模。同时，基于明瑟收益率的视角，分析在普通高等教育尚未达到潜在规模，保持公办普通高校本科招生规模相对稳定的深层意义。
기우1977년-2011년전국고고보명인수、록취인수、인균GDP등수거，근거경제증장여보통고등교육규모（록취인수）적상관관계，운용곡선고계적방법대아국보통고등교육규모진행예측。근거2005년지2011년적고교보명인수、록취인수、응계고중필업생인수등수거，운용Mingat Alain 화Jeepeng Tan제출적ED （고등교육잠재규모공식）분석당전아국보통고등교육적잠재규모，발현보통고등교육실제규모상미체도잠재규모。동시，기우명슬수익솔적시각，분석재보통고등교육상미체도잠재규모，보지공판보통고교본과초생규모상대은정적심층의의。
In 1977, the college entrance examination system was restored and the admission rate was 4.8%. Since 1999 when Chinese college enrollment expanded, the Chinese universities has grown rapidly in size. In 2012, the Ministry of Education issued “Guidelines for the Improvement quality in Higher education” and pointed out the scale of general higher education should be stabilized. Based on 1977 -2011 national college entrance examination enrollments, admission number, per capita GDP and other data, and according to the economic growth and higher education scale correlation, this paper uses of curve estimation method to predict the scale of Chinese higher education. Also, the paper avails itself on data 2005-2011 about college enrollment, admission number, the number of high school graduates etc., and uses the Mingat Alain and Jeepeng Tan's ED (formula for the potential size of higher education) to analyze the potential scale of higher education in China. We find that higher education has not yet reached its full capacity. Using the Mincerrian rate of return as a perspective, the paper finally explores the significance of the guidelines by the Ministry of Education.