CAJ | 학술논문

未来俄乌关系将受到多种因素的影响和制约。从俄罗斯角度看，深化与乌克兰等独联体国家合作是其长期的战略目标。尽管这一目标在克里米亚并入俄罗斯版图后严重受挫，俄罗斯仍将不遗余力地维持对乌克兰的影响力。对乌克兰而言，尽快加入欧盟，融入欧洲文明大家庭是未来乌克兰外交政策的首要目标。考虑到乌克兰西化政策给俄罗斯带来的消极影响和乌克兰对俄罗斯严重的能源依赖等因素，未来一段时间内乌克兰将成为俄罗斯和欧盟之间的缓冲地带。在欧盟、北约与俄罗斯围绕乌克兰地缘政治博弈长期存在，而乌克兰国内东西部分歧难以弥合的大背景下，多种因素、多种政治力量交互作用决定了未来俄乌关系将充满变数。
미래아오관계장수도다충인소적영향화제약。종아라사각도간，심화여오극란등독련체국가합작시기장기적전략목표。진관저일목표재극리미아병입아라사판도후엄중수좌，아라사잉장불유여력지유지대오극란적영향력。대오극란이언，진쾌가입구맹，융입구주문명대가정시미래오극란외교정책적수요목표。고필도오극란서화정책급아라사대래적소겁영향화오극란대아라사엄중적능원의뢰등인소，미래일단시간내오극란장성위아라사화구맹지간적완충지대。재구맹、북약여아라사위요오극란지연정치박혁장기존재，이오극란국내동서부분기난이미합적대배경하，다충인소、다충정치역량교호작용결정료미래아오관계장충만변수。
The future relationship between Russia and Ukraine will be affected and restricted by various factors. From Russia's point of view, to deep the cooperation with Ukraine and other CIS countries is its long-term strategic goal. Although, this goal suffered a setback after Crimea joined into Russian territory, Russia will spare no effort to maintain influence on Ukraine. For Ukraine, join into the European Union (the big family of European civilization) as soon as possible, is the principal goal of Ukraine's foreign policy in the future. Considering the factors like the negative effects of the Ukraine’s westernization policy to Russia and Ukraine’s energy depends on Russia seriously, Ukraine will be the buffer zone between Russia and the European Union over a period of time. The Ukraine geopolitical game around the European Union, NATO and Russia will exist for a long time. Ukraine's domestic east-west differences are unbridgeable. The interaction of variety factors and political forces determine that the future relationship between Russia and Ukraine will be full of variables.