CAJ | 학술논문

针对陕西省泾惠渠灌区地下水不合理开采引起的环境地质恶化问题，首先采用平稳性检验、纯随机性检验以及BIC准则对影响灌区地下水位的降雨量、渠灌用水量、地下水开采量以及渠井用水比4个主要因子进行特征分析和预处理，然后利用ARIMA模型对这4个因子的未来变化进行模拟预测。在此基础上，采用Vis-ual MODFLOW三维可视化软件对灌区的含水层结构、水文地质参数、研究区边界条件及源汇项等进行概化。利用灌区2001~2008年各观测井点地下水位对模型进行模拟识别，采用灌区2009~2010年的地下水位进行模型验证。结果表明，模型训练结果与实测水位较吻合，误差满足要求，对未来地下水位的预测也较为合理。
침대합서성경혜거관구지하수불합리개채인기적배경지질악화문제，수선채용평은성검험、순수궤성검험이급BIC준칙대영향관구지하수위적강우량、거관용수량、지하수개채량이급거정용수비4개주요인자진행특정분석화예처리，연후이용ARIMA모형대저4개인자적미래변화진행모의예측。재차기출상，채용Vis-ual MODFLOW삼유가시화연건대관구적함수층결구、수문지질삼수、연구구변계조건급원회항등진행개화。이용관구2001~2008년각관측정점지하수위대모형진행모의식별，채용관구2009~2010년적지하수위진행모형험증。결과표명，모형훈련결과여실측수위교문합，오차만족요구，대미래지하수위적예측야교위합리。
Aiming at the deteriorating environmental geological problems of Jinghuiqu irrigation area in Shaanxi Province in-duced by irrational underground water mining, we use stationary test, pure randomness test and BIC criteria to analyze and pre-treat the four factors affecting the underground water level, including precipitation, amount of irrigation water, amount of ground-water extraction and the water use ratio of channel to well, and then apply ARIMA model to forecast the tendency of four main factors in the future. Then the aquifer structure, hydrogeological parameters, boundary conditions and source-sink term of the irrigation area are generalized by Modflow visualization software. We simulate and identify the model using the level data of groundwater observation wells from 2001 to 2008, and further verify the model using the underground level from 2009 to 2010. The results show that the training results are in accordance with the actual values, and so is the predicted groundwater level.