CAJ | 학술논문

目的应用Markov模型对泰州市2011-2015年的疟疾发病趋势进行预测,为制定防治对策提供科学依据.方法选取泰州市1999-2010年的疟疾发病数据,将其划分为四个状态,通过时间与状态的转移概率矩阵,取概率最大者进行预报.结果通过阶转移概率矩阵转换得出泰州市2011年状态为1的概率最大(P=0.3333)；2012-2015年阶转移概率矩阵中状态1对应的转移概率最大(0.3333,0.2407,0.2191,0.1950).结论泰州市疟疾发病率在未来5年中将继续维持在1/10万以下的较低水平,全市再次发生大面积暴发的可能性较小.
목적응용Markov모형대태주시2011-2015년적학질발병추세진행예측,위제정방치대책제공과학의거.방법선취태주시1999-2010년적학질발병수거,장기화분위사개상태,통과시간여상태적전이개솔구진,취개솔최대자진행예보.결과통과계전이개솔구진전환득출태주시2011년상태위1적개솔최대(P=0.3333)；2012-2015년계전이개솔구진중상태1대응적전이개솔최대(0.3333,0.2407,0.2191,0.1950).결론태주시학질발병솔재미래5년중장계속유지재1/10만이하적교저수평,전시재차발생대면적폭발적가능성교소.
Objective To provide science bases for adjusting Malaria control strategies by forecasting the epideMic trends in Taizhou province froM 2011 to 2015 according to the Markov Model.Methods Dividing the Malaria datuM of Taizhou province froM 1999 to 2010 into four conditions.To take the biggest probability to forecast,on the basis of the tiMe and the condition transition probability Matrix.Results Through the step transition probability Matrix transforMation,the condition of Taizhou province in 2011 is 1,and the probability is the biggest (P=0.3333);The corresponding transition probability of the condition 1 is the biggest in the step transition probability Matrix froM 2012 to 2015(0.3333,0.2407,0.2191,0.1950). Conclusion The incidence of Malaria in Taizhou province will sustain below 1/100,000 in the future 5 years.It’s alMost iMpossible for exploding in the large-scale of the whole province again.