CAJ | 학술논문

简要对比了模糊数学、概率统计和灰色系统理论所描述的不确定性信息类型和适用范围，结合灰色系统理论，以区间灰数描述项目各工作持续时间范围的不确定性，并以灰工作的简化形式构建了工作持续时间为区间灰数的灰工作网络计划模型。在重新定义关键路径的基础上，针对灰工作网络计划图的特点，确定了基于核与灰度的灰工作运算法则，并给出了灰工作的排序规则，引入灰工作大小的排序。在计算过程中针对灰区间不合理的部分--各节点时间参数的灰区间进行了修正，减弱了灰度过分放大的不利影响。最后，通过具体实例分析，验证了该模型的有效性：该模型能够提供项目完工工期区间范围及计划工期内的完工概率，且不受工作个数限制，具有广泛的适应性。
간요대비료모호수학、개솔통계화회색계통이론소묘술적불학정성신식류형화괄용범위，결합회색계통이론，이구간회수묘술항목각공작지속시간범위적불학정성，병이회공작적간화형식구건료공작지속시간위구간회수적회공작망락계화모형。재중신정의관건로경적기출상，침대회공작망락계화도적특점，학정료기우핵여회도적회공작운산법칙，병급출료회공작적배서규칙，인입회공작대소적배서。재계산과정중침대회구간불합리적부분--각절점시간삼수적회구간진행료수정，감약료회도과분방대적불리영향。최후，통과구체실례분석，험증료해모형적유효성：해모형능구제공항목완공공기구간범위급계화공기내적완공개솔，차불수공작개수한제，구유엄범적괄응성。
This paper first analyzes briefly the merits and demerits of the existing method on processing un-certain information, such as fuzzy mathematics, stochastic and methods. According to the grey system theory, it portrays the stochastic of duration effectively with interval grey number, and then introduces a new model of grey network scheduling that is constituted by interval grey numbers. On the basis of redefining the critical path and the characteristic of grey network scheduling model, the authors adopt the algorithm and the ranking of grey work. Meanwhile, the range of every time parameters is revised in the calculation process, and then the excessive ampli-fication of grey interval is avoided effectively. At last, this paper verifies the validity of this model through specific case analyses:the model can provide the range of project duration and the probability of completion. Furthermore, it is not limited to the number of works.