CAJ | 학술논문

通过对试验基地中宁1981-2008年气象资料和红枣产量资料的分析，结合历年主要农业气象灾害记录，得出了5类影响红枣产量的主要农业气象灾害，分别是萌芽展叶期高温（B1）、盛花期空气的高温低湿（B2）、盛花期连阴雨（B3）、果实生长期连阴雨（B4）、果实成熟期连阴雨（B5）；采用层次分析法对上述气象灾害进行量化分析，得到其对红枣生产的影响权重顺序：B5＞B4＞B2＞B3＞B1；将趋势产量进行灾害订正，预测红枣各生育期的实际产量，并建立了基于农业气象灾害的中宁红枣的动态产量预报模型，可为实际预报业务提供参考依据。
통과대시험기지중저1981-2008년기상자료화홍조산량자료적분석，결합력년주요농업기상재해기록，득출료5류영향홍조산량적주요농업기상재해，분별시맹아전협기고온（B1）、성화기공기적고온저습（B2）、성화기련음우（B3）、과실생장기련음우（B4）、과실성숙기련음우（B5）；채용층차분석법대상술기상재해진행양화분석，득도기대홍조생산적영향권중순서：B5＞B4＞B2＞B3＞B1；장추세산량진행재해정정，예측홍조각생육기적실제산량，병건립료기우농업기상재해적중저홍조적동태산량예보모형，가위실제예보업무제공삼고의거。
Through the analysis of meteorological data and yield of red jujube in the experimental station in Zhongn-ing County of Ningxia ,combined with the records of main agro-meteorological disasters ,it was discovered that there were mainly 5 kinds of agro-meteorological disasters affecting the productivity of red jujube ,i .e .,high temperature in sprout-ing and leaf expansion stage (B1 ) ,high temperature and low humidity in florescence stage (B2 ) ,continuous rain in flo-rescence stage (B3 ) ,continuous rain in fruit growing stage (B4 ) ,and continuous rain in maturity stage (B5 ) .The ana-lytic hierarchy process (AHP) was adopted for quantitative analysis of these disasters ,which indicated that the influenc-ing weight of different disasters to the production of red jujube was sequenced as B 5>B4>B2>B3>B1 .The trend yields were corrected so as to forecast the actual output of red jujube in different stages ,and to set up the models of dynamic forecast of productivity ,which could be used as references in actual forecasting activities .