CAJ | 학술논문

基于一个反映房价与地价微观形成机理的多变量计量经济模型，对我国房价与地价的关系进行理论与实证分析。研究发现：我国房价与地价、竣工房屋造价和销竣比存在长期均衡关系；房价、地价具有较强的粘性；地价虽然从长期看是房价的Granger原因，但从方差分解看，房价对地价的影响远远超过地价对房价的影响；相对于地价的影响而言，“房价惯性”及供求失衡是房价上涨的关键因素；房价和地价受到冲击后，响应值一般在6～7个季度后达到最大并高位趋稳。因此，改善房地产调控效果的关键在于：一是抑制“房价惯性”；二是出台调控政策需有充分的提前期，同时调控政策执行期要足够长；三是调控政策力度要能够实现房地产供求两方面的反向平衡。
기우일개반영방개여지개미관형성궤리적다변량계량경제모형，대아국방개여지개적관계진행이론여실증분석。연구발현：아국방개여지개、준공방옥조개화소준비존재장기균형관계；방개、지개구유교강적점성；지개수연종장기간시방개적Granger원인，단종방차분해간，방개대지개적영향원원초과지개대방개적영향；상대우지개적영향이언，“방개관성”급공구실형시방개상창적관건인소；방개화지개수도충격후，향응치일반재6～7개계도후체도최대병고위추은。인차，개선방지산조공효과적관건재우：일시억제“방개관성”；이시출태조공정책수유충분적제전기，동시조공정책집행기요족구장；삼시조공정책력도요능구실현방지산공구량방면적반향평형。
Based on multivariate econometric model determining the microscopic forming mechanism of housing price and land price,this article makes theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship between housing price and land price.Study finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the housing price,land price, completed housing cost and the ratio of housing sales area and completed housing area,that although land price is Granger cause of housing price from long-term perspective,however,the influence of housing price on land price is much bigger than the influence of land price on housing price from the perspective of variance decomposition,that the key factor for the rise of housing price,relative to the influence of land price,is“housing price inertia”and the imbalance between supply and demand,and that after housing price and land price are shocked,the response value of housing price and land price to the stochastic impulse will go to the maximum after six to seven quarter and become stabilized soon afterwards.Therefore,the key to improving the effect of the real estate regulation is the suppression of“housing price inertia”,the introduction of policies for regulating housing price should be ahead of the time,meanwhile,the implementation of the policies should take a long time,and reverse balance between supply and demand of real estate should be realized by regulating policies.