干旱地区农业研究
榦旱地區農業研究
간한지구농업연구
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE ARID AREAS
2013年
5期
14-18,27
,共6页
降水量%干旱预测%灰色系统%GM(1,1)模型
降水量%榦旱預測%灰色繫統%GM(1,1)模型
강수량%간한예측%회색계통%GM(1,1)모형
precipitation%drought prediction%gray system%GM (1,1 ) model
新乡市属严重缺水地域,近年来干旱的加剧使水资源短缺问题更加突出,严重制约了区域社会经济的发展。因此,对该地区进行降水序列的分析以及干旱的预测显得尤为重要。利用新乡市1953-2010年的年降水量资料,采用一元线性回归法和Mann-Kendall法分析新乡市降水的时间变化规律,结果表明:该地区近60年来年降水量呈减少的趋势,干旱发生频率有增加的趋势。以1953-2000年的年降水量资料为建模数据,2001-2010年的年降水量资料为检验数据,运用灰色系统的灰色预测方法,建立新乡市的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对该地区未来一定时期内干旱发生的时间进行预测,经检验该预测模型精度高,检验结果与实际相符,故可用该模型对新乡市未来的干旱年进行预测。预测结果显示,新乡市将在2012-2013、2020-2021、2028-2029年期间发生干旱。
新鄉市屬嚴重缺水地域,近年來榦旱的加劇使水資源短缺問題更加突齣,嚴重製約瞭區域社會經濟的髮展。因此,對該地區進行降水序列的分析以及榦旱的預測顯得尤為重要。利用新鄉市1953-2010年的年降水量資料,採用一元線性迴歸法和Mann-Kendall法分析新鄉市降水的時間變化規律,結果錶明:該地區近60年來年降水量呈減少的趨勢,榦旱髮生頻率有增加的趨勢。以1953-2000年的年降水量資料為建模數據,2001-2010年的年降水量資料為檢驗數據,運用灰色繫統的灰色預測方法,建立新鄉市的灰色預測GM(1,1)模型,對該地區未來一定時期內榦旱髮生的時間進行預測,經檢驗該預測模型精度高,檢驗結果與實際相符,故可用該模型對新鄉市未來的榦旱年進行預測。預測結果顯示,新鄉市將在2012-2013、2020-2021、2028-2029年期間髮生榦旱。
신향시속엄중결수지역,근년래간한적가극사수자원단결문제경가돌출,엄중제약료구역사회경제적발전。인차,대해지구진행강수서렬적분석이급간한적예측현득우위중요。이용신향시1953-2010년적년강수량자료,채용일원선성회귀법화Mann-Kendall법분석신향시강수적시간변화규률,결과표명:해지구근60년래년강수량정감소적추세,간한발생빈솔유증가적추세。이1953-2000년적년강수량자료위건모수거,2001-2010년적년강수량자료위검험수거,운용회색계통적회색예측방법,건립신향시적회색예측GM(1,1)모형,대해지구미래일정시기내간한발생적시간진행예측,경검험해예측모형정도고,검험결과여실제상부,고가용해모형대신향시미래적간한년진행예측。예측결과현시,신향시장재2012-2013、2020-2021、2028-2029년기간발생간한。
Xinxiang City in He’nan Province is a region with a serious water shortage .Recently ,the problem of water shortage has become even more outstanding due to the aggravation of drought ,which has seriously restricted the so-cial and economic development .Thus it is important to analyze the trend of precipitation change and to conduct drought forecasting in this region .Based on the annual precipitation in Xinxiang during 1953 to 2010 ,the temporal variation of precipitation was analyzed by using linear regression equation and Mann-Kendall method .The results showed that the precipitation tended to decrease and the drought frequency tended to increase in Xinxiang in current 60 years .With the observed values of annual precipitation during 1953 to 2000 as modeling data and those during 2001 to 2010 as testing data ,and by using gray system technique ,the gray prediction model GM (1 ,1 ) of Xinxiang was established ,the time of drought occurrence in the future was forecasted .The testing results showed a good precision and were consistent well to the actuality .Therefore ,this model could be used to predict the years of drought .It was indicated that the drought would take place in the period of 2012-2013 ,2020-2021 and 2028-2029 .