CAJ | 학술논문

为了研究山东省参考作物蒸散量（ET0）的变化特征，选取属于湿润气候的成山头站以及属于半湿润气候的惠民站、济南站、潍坊站、定陶站、兖州站6个气象站，利用国家气象资料中心提供的1960-2011年的逐日气象资料，采用距平分析、回归分析和地理信息系统分析了山东省ET0的年代际、年际和年内的时空变化趋势，并通过偏相关分析及标准化偏回归系数对各站ET0的影响因素进行研究。结果表明：半湿润区ET0年代均值大于湿润区ET0年代均值，其中济南站最大，最大值出现在20世纪70年代，达到1269.2 mm，成山头站最小，最小值也出现在20世纪70年代，为900.8 mm；6个站点中，济南站ET0值年际间的变化最大，极差达到351.9mm，定陶的极差最小，为157.8 mm。潍坊的ET0年际波动最大，标准差达到74.4 mm；定陶的年际ET0标准差达到51.4 mm，波动最小。6个站点的ET0年均值随时间呈现不同程度的降低，其中潍坊和兖州为极显著，济南和定陶为显著降低。ET0年均值在空间上的分布规律为：济南站>潍坊站>惠民站>兖州站>定陶站>成山头站；6个站点的ET0都是夏季最高，冬季最低。春季平均ET0值中部地区最大，达到409.0 mm，东北部沿海区最小，只有237.2 mm。夏季平均ET0值的空间分布与全年平均ET0值的空间分布较为一致，只在惠民站为中心的小区域内出现降低，与周围区域有反差。秋、冬季平均ET0值在中部及东北部均较大，东北部最大，西南部及西北部较小，最小值出现在西南地区。半湿润气候的惠民站、济南站、潍坊站、定陶站、兖州站的ET0随时间的年内变化曲线为单峰型，峰值均出现在夏季6月，全年的第162天。湿润气候下成山头站的ET0随时间的年内变化曲线呈双峰型，峰值分别出现在春季5月，全年第150天以及秋季9月，全年第270天；山东省ET0与气象要素间的相关性很好，除成山头站的最低气温外，均达到极显著水平。影响山东省湿润气候和半湿润气候ET0变化的主要气象要素分别为最高气温和平均气温。為瞭研究山東省參攷作物蒸散量（ET0）的變化特徵，選取屬于濕潤氣候的成山頭站以及屬于半濕潤氣候的惠民站、濟南站、濰坊站、定陶站、兗州站6箇氣象站，利用國傢氣象資料中心提供的1960-2011年的逐日氣象資料，採用距平分析、迴歸分析和地理信息繫統分析瞭山東省ET0的年代際、年際和年內的時空變化趨勢，併通過偏相關分析及標準化偏迴歸繫數對各站ET0的影響因素進行研究。結果錶明：半濕潤區ET0年代均值大于濕潤區ET0年代均值，其中濟南站最大，最大值齣現在20世紀70年代，達到1269.2 mm，成山頭站最小，最小值也齣現在20世紀70年代，為900.8 mm；6箇站點中，濟南站ET0值年際間的變化最大，極差達到351.9mm，定陶的極差最小，為157.8 mm。濰坊的ET0年際波動最大，標準差達到74.4 mm；定陶的年際ET0標準差達到51.4 mm，波動最小。6箇站點的ET0年均值隨時間呈現不同程度的降低，其中濰坊和兗州為極顯著，濟南和定陶為顯著降低。ET0年均值在空間上的分佈規律為：濟南站>濰坊站>惠民站>兗州站>定陶站>成山頭站；6箇站點的ET0都是夏季最高，鼕季最低。春季平均ET0值中部地區最大，達到409.0 mm，東北部沿海區最小，隻有237.2 mm。夏季平均ET0值的空間分佈與全年平均ET0值的空間分佈較為一緻，隻在惠民站為中心的小區域內齣現降低，與週圍區域有反差。鞦、鼕季平均ET0值在中部及東北部均較大，東北部最大，西南部及西北部較小，最小值齣現在西南地區。半濕潤氣候的惠民站、濟南站、濰坊站、定陶站、兗州站的ET0隨時間的年內變化麯線為單峰型，峰值均齣現在夏季6月，全年的第162天。濕潤氣候下成山頭站的ET0隨時間的年內變化麯線呈雙峰型，峰值分彆齣現在春季5月，全年第150天以及鞦季9月，全年第270天；山東省ET0與氣象要素間的相關性很好，除成山頭站的最低氣溫外，均達到極顯著水平。影響山東省濕潤氣候和半濕潤氣候ET0變化的主要氣象要素分彆為最高氣溫和平均氣溫。
위료연구산동성삼고작물증산량（ET0）적변화특정，선취속우습윤기후적성산두참이급속우반습윤기후적혜민참、제남참、유방참、정도참、연주참6개기상참，이용국가기상자료중심제공적1960-2011년적축일기상자료，채용거평분석、회귀분석화지리신식계통분석료산동성ET0적년대제、년제화년내적시공변화추세，병통과편상관분석급표준화편회귀계수대각참ET0적영향인소진행연구。결과표명：반습윤구ET0년대균치대우습윤구ET0년대균치，기중제남참최대，최대치출현재20세기70년대，체도1269.2 mm，성산두참최소，최소치야출현재20세기70년대，위900.8 mm；6개참점중，제남참ET0치년제간적변화최대，겁차체도351.9mm，정도적겁차최소，위157.8 mm。유방적ET0년제파동최대，표준차체도74.4 mm；정도적년제ET0표준차체도51.4 mm，파동최소。6개참점적ET0년균치수시간정현불동정도적강저，기중유방화연주위겁현저，제남화정도위현저강저。ET0년균치재공간상적분포규률위：제남참>유방참>혜민참>연주참>정도참>성산두참；6개참점적ET0도시하계최고，동계최저。춘계평균ET0치중부지구최대，체도409.0 mm，동북부연해구최소，지유237.2 mm。하계평균ET0치적공간분포여전년평균ET0치적공간분포교위일치，지재혜민참위중심적소구역내출현강저，여주위구역유반차。추、동계평균ET0치재중부급동북부균교대，동북부최대，서남부급서북부교소，최소치출현재서남지구。반습윤기후적혜민참、제남참、유방참、정도참、연주참적ET0수시간적년내변화곡선위단봉형，봉치균출현재하계6월，전년적제162천。습윤기후하성산두참적ET0수시간적년내변화곡선정쌍봉형，봉치분별출현재춘계5월，전년제150천이급추계9월，전년제270천；산동성ET0여기상요소간적상관성흔호，제성산두참적최저기온외，균체도겁현저수평。영향산동성습윤기후화반습윤기후ET0변화적주요기상요소분별위최고기온화평균기온。
To study variation characteristics of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) in Shandong province, this study chose Cheng Shantou Station which located in semi-humid areas, and Huimin Station, Jinan Station, Weifang Station, Dingtao Station and Yanzhou Station which situated in humid region to analyse decadal, inter-annual and annual variation tendency of ET0 by distance average analysis,regression analysis and geographical information system, using daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2011 pro-vided by National Climatic Data Center. Influencing factors of ET0 were found through partial correlation analysis and standardized partial regression coefficient. The results showed that the decadal mean ET0 in semi-humid region was greater than that in humid region. Both the greatest and the smallest value of the mean ET0 were showed in 1970s. The maximum mean ET0 was 1 269.2 mm in Jinan Station, while the minimum was 900.8 mm in Cheng Shantou Station. In all of these stations, the greatest change of annual ET0 was in Jinan Station with the range of 351.9 mm, and the minimal change appeared in Dingtao Station with the range of 157.8 mm. The biggest inter-annual fluctuation was in Weifang Station with the standard deviation of 74.4 mm and the smallest was in Dingtao Station with the standard deviation of 51.4 mm. The annual ET0 decreased differently in these 6 stations, annual ET0 in Weifang Station and Yanzhou Station decreased very significantly, and it reduced significantly in Jinan Station and Dingtao Station. When it came to the spatial distribution regularities of annual average value of ET0, the sequence in descending was Jinan Station, Weifang Station, Huimin Station, Yanzhou Station, Dingtao Station, and Cheng Shantou Station. ET0 had higher values in summer and the lower ones in winter. In spring, the greatest average ET0 showed in central region, which reached 409.0 mm, while, it was only 237.2 mm in the northeast coastal zone. The spatial distribution of average ET0 in summer was somewhat similar to that of annual average ET0, but there was reduction in a small area taking Huimin Station as center. In autumn and winter, it was greater in the central and northeast area, the greatest in the northeast, the smaller in the southwest and northwest, and the smallest in the southwest. ET0 change curve of the five sites in semi-humid areas on annual scale was single peak type with the peak in June, the 162th day of the year, whereas, ET0 change in humid climate areas in a year showed double-peak curves, and the peaks occurred in May, the 150th day and autumn, and September, the 270th day respectively. The correlation between ET0 and meteorological elements in Shandong Province reached very significant level in addition to the lowest temperature in Cheng Shantou Station. Main meteorological elements which influenced ET0 variation in humid climate and semi-humid climate in Shandong Province were the highest temperature and the aver-age temperature.