CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用图表方法分析了与美国房市相关的房价、房售、房供、房建和房需的变动趋势和结构，在此基础上给出房市复苏的趋势性判断。基本结论是：美国部分房市指标遵从年度波动周期规律，即以12个月为周期波动式先升后降的规律，与单家庭相关的住房指标对该规律的表现尤为明显。房屋建设的季节因素可能是形成该规律的原因之一。时间序列经季节调整后其周期性规律可能被破坏。新房销售通常每年3-5月份达到年度峰值，上半年好于下半年。房售变动先于房价，房价再影响待售房。美国房市是否复苏关键看房售，而能否持续复苏关键看房需。本轮房市复苏主要靠多家庭房需拉动，未来势头呈逐渐减弱趋势。今年房价较去年呈涨势，但预测明年房价峰值至多比今年偏高。明年房售、开工均依年度规律波动下降，长期利率呈升势，住房抵押贷款发放规模缓降。因单家庭房建盲目性较大，多家庭房建扩张过快，明年均可能出现供大于求。房需不足是明年美国房市面临的最大挑战。据此判断，明年房需小于房供，房市复苏情况不会比今年好。
본문이용도표방법분석료여미국방시상관적방개、방수、방공、방건화방수적변동추세화결구，재차기출상급출방시복소적추세성판단。기본결론시：미국부분방시지표준종년도파동주기규률，즉이12개월위주기파동식선승후강적규률，여단가정상관적주방지표대해규률적표현우위명현。방옥건설적계절인소가능시형성해규률적원인지일。시간서렬경계절조정후기주기성규률가능피파배。신방소수통상매년3-5월빈체도년도봉치，상반년호우하반년。방수변동선우방개，방개재영향대수방。미국방시시부복소관건간방수，이능부지속복소관건간방수。본륜방시복소주요고다가정방수랍동，미래세두정축점감약추세。금년방개교거년정창세，단예측명년방개봉치지다비금년편고。명년방수、개공균의년도규률파동하강，장기리솔정승세，주방저압대관발방규모완강。인단가정방건맹목성교대，다가정방건확장과쾌，명년균가능출현공대우구。방수불족시명년미국방시면림적최대도전。거차판단，명년방수소우방공，방시복소정황불회비금년호。
This paper is analyzing the changing tendency of the home price,sales,construction,supply and demand,and forecasting the recovery of U.S. housing market. The main conclusions are:some of U.S. housing market index follow the law of annual periodical fluctuation,i.e. the curve in a graph behaves moving upward and then downward periodically on the basis of every 12 month term. The housing indicators relating to single family home behave even more obviously. The seasonal factor in home construction seems to be one of many explanations on the formation of the law. New home sales reach the peak level between annual March and May,and are better in first half than those in second half. Whether U.S. housing market begins to recover or not,mainly depends on the home sales,but whether the market is able to sustainably recover mainly depends on the home demand. This housing recovery is pushed by the multifamily home demand,and its trend will be weaken in the near future. The peak of home price in this year tends to increase,but the peak in next year will be a bit higher at most than that in this year. The home sales and housing starts will fluctuately decrease upon the annual law. The long-tern interest rates will tend to rise and the origination of home mortgage will gradually contract. Since lots of single family houses are built for future aimless sale and too many multifamily houses in construction will complete,both single family and multifamily houses will probablly be over supplied nexr year. The biggest challenge to US housing market will be the inadequate home demand. To optimistically estimate,the recovery of housing market next year will probally not better than that of this year.