CAJ | 학술논문

以企业制造执行系统（ MES）工程为背景，以复杂系统可靠性增长模型与评估方法为研究内容，围绕制造执行系统的任务可靠性及其目标值和系统可靠性增长试验进行分析。针对MES功能复杂和试验数据不易获得等特点，根据试验信息以及工程咨询专家的经验，利用基于共轭型先验分布的贝叶斯信息融合方法，对MES各功能模块可靠度进行评估。利用模糊先验信息下的可靠性增长分析方法，对MES功能模块失效率的Bayes 点估计值进行研究，解决了复杂系统在故障原因不易确定等条件下对复杂系统及其功能模块进行可靠性增长试验的问题。
이기업제조집행계통（ MES）공정위배경，이복잡계통가고성증장모형여평고방법위연구내용，위요제조집행계통적임무가고성급기목표치화계통가고성증장시험진행분석。침대MES공능복잡화시험수거불역획득등특점，근거시험신식이급공정자순전가적경험，이용기우공액형선험분포적패협사신식융합방법，대MES각공능모괴가고도진행평고。이용모호선험신식하적가고성증장분석방법，대MES공능모괴실효솔적Bayes 점고계치진행연구，해결료복잡계통재고장원인불역학정등조건하대복잡계통급기공능모괴진행가고성증장시험적문제。
On the background of Manufacturing Execution Systems ( MES) engineering ,aimed at research on models and evalua-tion methods of reliability growth for MES ,enclosing reliability of MES task and design target ,reliability growth test and analysis methods ,it proposes the goal of MES reliability growth planning .For some characteristics of manufacturing execution system func-tions complexity,difficult in data collection and so forth ,it comprehensively takes advantage of previous test information and the experience of consultancy expert .It proposes the Bayes fusion method based on conjugate priori distribution ,and it estimates the reliability of every function module .It also utilizes the reliability growth evaluation method under vague priori information ,and it estimates the Bayes point estimate research of MES function module failure rate .Aimed at information fusion may not reach the expected utility problem ,the fault tree analysis diagnosis system to control risk of information fusion ,it solves the problem of MES function module reliability growth test under the condition of complicated in procedure and unable to define the reason of fault .