CAJ | 학술논문

葛洲坝入库流量预报是葛洲坝电站安全稳定运行和制定发电计划的关键前提，同时也是三峡-葛洲坝梯级电站优化调度的重要技术支撑。对三峡出库与葛洲坝入库之间关系和不平衡性及流量传播时间进行分析，利用多年积累的三峡出库流量资料，通过水量平衡方程和多元门限回归模型对三峡出库流量进行不平衡修正，使修正后的三峡出库与实际出库流量差值明显减小，有效提高了发电计划的制定效率。
갈주패입고류량예보시갈주패전참안전은정운행화제정발전계화적관건전제，동시야시삼협-갈주패제급전참우화조도적중요기술지탱。대삼협출고여갈주패입고지간관계화불평형성급류량전파시간진행분석，이용다년적루적삼협출고류량자료，통과수량평형방정화다원문한회귀모형대삼협출고류량진행불평형수정，사수정후적삼협출고여실제출고류량차치명현감소，유효제고료발전계화적제정효솔。
The Gezhouba inflow forecasting is the key premise of safe and reliable operation of hydropower station as well as power generation plan making. It also provides technical support for optimal scheduling of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade. According to the unbalance between the Three Gorges outflow and the Gezhouba inflow , based on the inflow data of Three Gorges dam site, we have reduced the difference between actual and theory value and improved the efficiency of power generation plan making by using the water balance equation and multi-threshold regression model.