武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）
武漢理工大學學報（信息與管理工程版）
무한리공대학학보（신식여관리공정판）
JOURNAL OF WUHAN AUTOMOTIVE POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY
2014年
2期
283-287
,共5页
建设用地需求量%多元线性回归%Holt-Winter模型
建設用地需求量%多元線性迴歸%Holt-Winter模型
건설용지수구량%다원선성회귀%Holt-Winter모형
construction land demand%multiple linear regression%Holt-Winter model
为合理规划利用建设用地，结合某市经济、社会发展状况及建设用地现状，通过关键成功因素法（critical success factor， CSF）识别选取人口、国内生产总值、固定资产投资额，以及城市化率为主要影响指标，采用多元线性回归预测模型确定各个变量与建设用地之间的线性关系，运用岭回归对模型进行修正，并辅之Holt-Winter模型对城市建设用地影响因素进行预测，得出2011-2015年某市建设用地需求量总体呈现上升趋势的结论。
為閤理規劃利用建設用地，結閤某市經濟、社會髮展狀況及建設用地現狀，通過關鍵成功因素法（critical success factor， CSF）識彆選取人口、國內生產總值、固定資產投資額，以及城市化率為主要影響指標，採用多元線性迴歸預測模型確定各箇變量與建設用地之間的線性關繫，運用嶺迴歸對模型進行脩正，併輔之Holt-Winter模型對城市建設用地影響因素進行預測，得齣2011-2015年某市建設用地需求量總體呈現上升趨勢的結論。
위합리규화이용건설용지，결합모시경제、사회발전상황급건설용지현상，통과관건성공인소법（critical success factor， CSF）식별선취인구、국내생산총치、고정자산투자액，이급성시화솔위주요영향지표，채용다원선성회귀예측모형학정각개변량여건설용지지간적선성관계，운용령회귀대모형진행수정，병보지Holt-Winter모형대성시건설용지영향인소진행예측，득출2011-2015년모시건설용지수구량총체정현상승추세적결론。
To improve the forecast accuracy , this paper fully considers the concept and features of construction land .Then based on the construction land's impact factors of economy and society , it chooses a city as the target city to calculate the con-struction land demand .According to the development of economy and society and the status of construction land of the city , it considers the influencing factors and chooses urban population , GDP, fixed asset investment and urbanization as the main influ-encing indicators by Critical Success Factor .Then the multiple linear regressions method is used to determine the linear relation-ship between the variables , and supplemented by Holt -Winter model to predict the influencing factor .After that, ridge regres-sion is aimed to correct the linear models .According to construction land condition of the city , the demand of construction land of the city from year 2011 to 2015 is concluded and the tendency is increasing .
