CAJ | 학술논문

目的：确定肠道传染病中的优势病种并对其进行疫情预测,为肠道传染病防控措施的制定提供科学依据.方法：对贵州省2008~2012年网络直报的9种肠道传染病(关联度为ri)手足口病(r1)、细菌性痢疾(r2)、其他感染性腹泻(r3)、甲肝(r4)、伤寒副伤寒(r5)、急性出血性结膜炎(r6)、未分型肝炎(r7)、戊肝(r8)、阿米巴痢疾(r9)进行灰关联分析,找出优势病种并按灰关联度排序；用灰色模型GM(1,1)对优势病种进行建模,再用后验差比C和小误差概率p 对模型进行精度检验,对模型精度较好的传染病进行2013年疫情预测.结果：9种肠道传染病灰关联度ri均大于0．6,均为优势病种,排序为r3＞r2＝r9＞r5＞r7＞r4＞r6＝r8＞r1；所建灰色数列模型GM(1,1)除急性出血性结膜炎精度不合格外,其余均较好,精度较好的传染病预测发病率分别为细菌性痢疾(14．24/10万)、其他感染性腹泻(31．83/10万)、未分型肝炎(1．48/10万)、手足口病(227．84/10万)、甲肝(1．50/10万)、伤寒副伤寒(1．74/10万)、戊肝(2．06/10万)、阿米巴痢疾(0．13/10万).结论：灰色理论能够很好地应用于优势病种确定及疫情预测；9种肠道传染病均为优势病种,不同病种与总发病率关联强度各不相同；细菌性痢疾、未分型肝炎、甲肝、伤寒副伤寒、阿米巴痢疾预测发病率有所下降,其余有所升高；应采取有针对性地预防控制措施,防止暴发流行.
목적：학정장도전염병중적우세병충병대기진행역정예측,위장도전염병방공조시적제정제공과학의거.방법：대귀주성2008~2012년망락직보적9충장도전염병(관련도위ri)수족구병(r1)、세균성이질(r2)、기타감염성복사(r3)、갑간(r4)、상한부상한(r5)、급성출혈성결막염(r6)、미분형간염(r7)、무간(r8)、아미파이질(r9)진행회관련분석,조출우세병충병안회관련도배서；용회색모형GM(1,1)대우세병충진행건모,재용후험차비C화소오차개솔p 대모형진행정도검험,대모형정도교호적전염병진행2013년역정예측.결과：9충장도전염병회관련도ri균대우0．6,균위우세병충,배서위r3＞r2＝r9＞r5＞r7＞r4＞r6＝r8＞r1；소건회색수렬모형GM(1,1)제급성출혈성결막염정도불합격외,기여균교호,정도교호적전염병예측발병솔분별위세균성이질(14．24/10만)、기타감염성복사(31．83/10만)、미분형간염(1．48/10만)、수족구병(227．84/10만)、갑간(1．50/10만)、상한부상한(1．74/10만)、무간(2．06/10만)、아미파이질(0．13/10만).결론：회색이론능구흔호지응용우우세병충학정급역정예측；9충장도전염병균위우세병충,불동병충여총발병솔관련강도각불상동；세균성이질、미분형간염、갑간、상한부상한、아미파이질예측발병솔유소하강,기여유소승고；응채취유침대성지예방공제조시,방지폭발류행.
Objective:To find out the advantage disease and to predict the epidemics,then to provide a scientific basis for intestinal infectious diseases control and prevention.Methods:9 kinds of intestinal infec-tious diseases including hand-foot-and-mouth disease(r1 ),bacillary dysentery(r2 ),other infectious diarrhea (r3 ),hepatitis A(r4 ),typhoid and paratyphoid(r5 ),acute hemorrhagic conj unctivitis(r6 ),unclassified hepa-titis(r7 ),hepatitis E(r8 ),amebic dysentery(r9 )of network report in Guizhou province from 2008 to 2012 were selected as the obj ects,the advantage disease was identified by grey correlation analysis.The Grey Model GM(1,1)was built according to the identified advantage disease,then the ratio of the posteriori differ-ence code(C)and the minimum error probability (p)were used to evaluate model accuracy,and to predict epi-demic in 2013.Results:All of the Grey Correlation Degree was greater than 0.6 and the 9 kinds of intestinal infectious diseases are all advantage disease,and the grey correlation sort was r3>r2=r9>r5>r7>r4>r6=r8>r1 .The rest of the 8 kinds of predictive model were better except of acute hemorrhagic conj unctivitis ,and the predictive incidence was bacillary dysentery(14.24/106),other infectious diarrhea(31.83/106),un-classified hepatitis(1.48/106 ),hand-foot-and-mouth disease(227.84/106 ),hepatitis A(1.50/106 ),typhoid and paratyphoid(1.74/106),hepatitis E(2.06/106),amebic dysentery(0.13/106).Conclusions:The Grey Sys-tem Theory can be well applied to determine advantage disease and epidemic disease prediction.9 kinds of in-testinal infectious diseases are advantages,different diseases associated with overall incidence are varies.Bac-illary dysentery,unclassified hepatitis,hepatitis A,typhoid and paratyphoid and amebic dysentery had a de-clining trend ,the others had a rising trend in 2013.Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken so as to prevent outbreaks.