干旱地区农业研究
榦旱地區農業研究
간한지구농업연구
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE ARID AREAS
2014年
2期
228-233,256
,共7页
吴雪梅%塔西甫拉提?特依拜%买买提?沙吾提%张飞
吳雪梅%塔西甫拉提?特依拜%買買提?沙吾提%張飛
오설매%탑서보랍제?특의배%매매제?사오제%장비
水资源承载力%PSO - PPE 模型%和田
水資源承載力%PSO - PPE 模型%和田
수자원승재력%PSO - PPE 모형%화전
carrying capacity of water resources%PSO - PPE model%Hetian Prefecture
为了定量评价和田地区水资源承载力，指导该地区水资源与社会、经济和生态系统协调发展，本文从“水资源-社会-经济-生态环境”复合系统角度出发，构建具有区域特色的水资源承载力评价指标体系，采用基于粒子群优化算法的投影寻踪评价模型（PSO - PPE 模型），对和田地区2005-2012年水资源承载力进行综合评价，并结合回归分析法对具有明显影响作用的指标进行分析。结果表明：和田八年来水资源承载力处于Ⅱ级，属于弱无压力状态，反映该区水资源承载力满足目前社会经济的发展需求，但不表明该地区不属于缺水地区；其中人均水资源量、水资源开发利用率、城镇化率的高低对水资源承载力综合评价值的大小具有较高影响；从长期发展规划来看，需结合干旱区绿洲发展特点，制定科学合理的水资源管理和利用措施，以保障水资源与社会经济的可持续发展。
為瞭定量評價和田地區水資源承載力，指導該地區水資源與社會、經濟和生態繫統協調髮展，本文從“水資源-社會-經濟-生態環境”複閤繫統角度齣髮，構建具有區域特色的水資源承載力評價指標體繫，採用基于粒子群優化算法的投影尋蹤評價模型（PSO - PPE 模型），對和田地區2005-2012年水資源承載力進行綜閤評價，併結閤迴歸分析法對具有明顯影響作用的指標進行分析。結果錶明：和田八年來水資源承載力處于Ⅱ級，屬于弱無壓力狀態，反映該區水資源承載力滿足目前社會經濟的髮展需求，但不錶明該地區不屬于缺水地區；其中人均水資源量、水資源開髮利用率、城鎮化率的高低對水資源承載力綜閤評價值的大小具有較高影響；從長期髮展規劃來看，需結閤榦旱區綠洲髮展特點，製定科學閤理的水資源管理和利用措施，以保障水資源與社會經濟的可持續髮展。
위료정량평개화전지구수자원승재력，지도해지구수자원여사회、경제화생태계통협조발전，본문종“수자원-사회-경제-생태배경”복합계통각도출발，구건구유구역특색적수자원승재력평개지표체계，채용기우입자군우화산법적투영심종평개모형（PSO - PPE 모형），대화전지구2005-2012년수자원승재력진행종합평개，병결합회귀분석법대구유명현영향작용적지표진행분석。결과표명：화전팔년래수자원승재력처우Ⅱ급，속우약무압력상태，반영해구수자원승재력만족목전사회경제적발전수구，단불표명해지구불속우결수지구；기중인균수자원량、수자원개발이용솔、성진화솔적고저대수자원승재력종합평개치적대소구유교고영향；종장기발전규화래간，수결합간한구록주발전특점，제정과학합리적수자원관리화이용조시，이보장수자원여사회경제적가지속발전。
In order to quantitatively evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Hetian Prefecture ,guide the cooperative development of the water resources with the society ,economy and ecological system in this region ,this paper starts from the compound system of water resources-society-ecological environment ,establish the evaluation indexed sys-tem for the carrying capacity of water resources with the regional characteristics .Then using the PSO-PPE model based on the particle swarm optimization ,and analyzed the indexes which has a significant effect combined with the regression analysis method .The results showed that :The carrying capacity of water resources in Hetian was the class II within the eight years ,it belonged to the situation of weak and less pressure ,reflected that carrying capacity of water resources in the region can be met the current social economic developing requirement .But it does not indicate that this region isn’t belong to the water-scarce areas ;Among them the height and lowness of the water resource per capita ,the development and utilization rate of water resources ,the urbanization rate have the rather high impact to the size of the evaluation value for the carrying capacity of water resources .Judging from the long-term development planning ,it needs to combine with the characteristics of the oasis development in arid areas ,to draw up the scientific and rational water resources manage-ment and utilization measures to ensure the sustainable development of the water resources and socio-economy .
