CAJ | 학술논문

文章通过对1994-2011年外汇占款的情况进行定性和定量分析，采用向量自回归模型，进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解。得出结论：外汇占款对我国基础货币、货币供应量和信贷总量都有扩张的影响，在间接融资依旧是当前我国企业融资的主要方式的情况下，外汇占款可以通过影响基础货币的投放来影响货币供应量和信贷总量，最终促进国内生产总值的上升。同时，由于外汇占款在基础货币中的比重不断上升，将削弱中央银行通过公开市场操作来回收流通中不断上升的货币的作用，由此会引起外部经济中资本账户和经常项目的“双顺差”给国内货币政策带来的巨大影响，对中央银行的货币政策效果产生重大影响。
문장통과대1994-2011년외회점관적정황진행정성화정량분석，채용향량자회귀모형，진행맥충향응분석화방차분해。득출결론：외회점관대아국기출화폐、화폐공응량화신대총량도유확장적영향，재간접융자의구시당전아국기업융자적주요방식적정황하，외회점관가이통과영향기출화폐적투방래영향화폐공응량화신대총량，최종촉진국내생산총치적상승。동시，유우외회점관재기출화폐중적비중불단상승，장삭약중앙은행통과공개시장조작래회수류통중불단상승적화폐적작용，유차회인기외부경제중자본장호화경상항목적“쌍순차”급국내화폐정책대래적거대영향，대중앙은행적화폐정책효과산생중대영향。
Using the vector auto-regression model to conduct an impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper analyzed the position for forex purchase in 1994-2011. it concluded that the rapid increase of position for forex purchase produces an effect on China’s monetary base, money supply and credit amount and ultimately the increase of the GDP via affecting the monetary supply and credit amount. At the same time, the increase of the proportion of position for forex purchase in the monetary base will weak the central bank in its effort to withdraw the circulatory currency in the open market, which will lead to the double surplus in the capital account and current account in the exterior economy. All these will influence profoundly the domestic monetary policy and the effect of the central banks’ monetary policy.