渤海大学学报(自然科学版)
渤海大學學報(自然科學版)
발해대학학보(자연과학판)
JOURNAL OF BOHAI UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE EDITION)
2013年
3期
328-334
,共7页
异质波动%联动性%中国股市%国际股市%DCC-MVGARCH模型
異質波動%聯動性%中國股市%國際股市%DCC-MVGARCH模型
이질파동%련동성%중국고시%국제고시%DCC-MVGARCH모형
Heterogeneous Fluctuation%Comovement%Chinese Stock Market%International Stock Market%DCC-MVGARCH Model
在定义与计算异质波动的前提下,使用DCC-MVGARCH模型,对中国股票市场与国际股票市场之间的联动性进行研究。结果表明,首先,中国市场与周边地区市场的联动性最强、新兴市场次之、欧美发达市场最弱;其次,从动态走势上看,金融危机的爆发使得中国市场与周边市场、印度市场以及欧洲市场的联动性发生显著上升,而美国、俄罗斯与巴西市场与中国的联动性则没有显著变化;最后,这种不规则走势为国际投资提供了避险的可能性。
在定義與計算異質波動的前提下,使用DCC-MVGARCH模型,對中國股票市場與國際股票市場之間的聯動性進行研究。結果錶明,首先,中國市場與週邊地區市場的聯動性最彊、新興市場次之、歐美髮達市場最弱;其次,從動態走勢上看,金融危機的爆髮使得中國市場與週邊市場、印度市場以及歐洲市場的聯動性髮生顯著上升,而美國、俄囉斯與巴西市場與中國的聯動性則沒有顯著變化;最後,這種不規則走勢為國際投資提供瞭避險的可能性。
재정의여계산이질파동적전제하,사용DCC-MVGARCH모형,대중국고표시장여국제고표시장지간적련동성진행연구。결과표명,수선,중국시장여주변지구시장적련동성최강、신흥시장차지、구미발체시장최약;기차,종동태주세상간,금융위궤적폭발사득중국시장여주변시장、인도시장이급구주시장적련동성발생현저상승,이미국、아라사여파서시장여중국적련동성칙몰유현저변화;최후,저충불규칙주세위국제투자제공료피험적가능성。
This paper analyzes the comovement between Chinese and international stock market by using DCC-MVGARCH model on the premise of defining and calculating heterogeneous fluctuation .The result shows that Chinese market has the strongest comovement with surrounding areas , with emerging markets second , the weakest is with developed markets in Europe and America .Then, from the view of dynamic trends , the outbreak of financial crisis makes the comovement between Chinese market and neighboring markets , Indian market as well as European market rise significantly , but there is no significant change between Chinese market and Ameri-can market, Russian market and Brazilian market .Finally, this irregular change provides international invest-ment with the possibility of avoiding risks .