CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于1997-2008年间我国GDP增长率和CPI的季度数据，通过HP滤波方法分解得出潜在GDP和产出缺口，并在菲利普斯曲线和产出缺口理论框架下运用协整方法对产出缺口、潜在GDP和CPI水平进行分析，得出我国价格总水平的合理目标区间为（-0．62％～3．61％），认为随着我国经济的发展，该区间将会缩小，尤其是上限会降低。
본문기우1997-2008년간아국GDP증장솔화CPI적계도수거，통과HP려파방법분해득출잠재GDP화산출결구，병재비리보사곡선화산출결구이론광가하운용협정방법대산출결구、잠재GDP화CPI수평진행분석，득출아국개격총수평적합리목표구간위（-0．62％～3．61％），인위수착아국경제적발전，해구간장회축소，우기시상한회강저。
Using the quarterly data of GDP growth rate and CPI in China from 1997 to 2008 , potential GDP and output gap are estimated by H -P filter.Then the reasonable range of overall price level is con-structed by analyzing potential GDP , output gap and CPI through the cointegration method under the framework of Phillips curve theory , leading to the result that the reasonable range of overall price level is (-0 .62%~3 .61%) , which will shrink with the development of the economy , especially the upper bound of the interval will decline .