CAJ | 학술논문

基于物质流分析方法，采用以物质投入与消耗为表征的环境压力函数，结合“修正后的Laspeyres方法”并运用结构分解分析模型，分析了兰州市1990?2004年经济增长与环境压力之间的时序关系及其变化趋势和各驱动因素对它的影响程度。结果表明：随着兰州市经济的快速增长，直接物质投入与国内物质消费总体呈上升趋势，由物质投入与消耗所产生的环境压力主要是由经济增长过程中自然资源的消耗所致。人口因素和经济增长因素对环境压力的增大具有正向效应，技术因素对它则具有负向效应，人口因素对它的影响程度相对较小且比较稳定，而经济增长因素与技术因素的影响更为显著。
기우물질류분석방법，채용이물질투입여소모위표정적배경압력함수，결합“수정후적Laspeyres방법”병운용결구분해분석모형，분석료란주시1990?2004년경제증장여배경압력지간적시서관계급기변화추세화각구동인소대타적영향정도。결과표명：수착란주시경제적쾌속증장，직접물질투입여국내물질소비총체정상승추세，유물질투입여소모소산생적배경압력주요시유경제증장과정중자연자원적소모소치。인구인소화경제증장인소대배경압력적증대구유정향효응，기술인소대타칙구유부향효응，인구인소대타적영향정도상대교소차비교은정，이경제증장인소여기술인소적영향경위현저。
Based on the material flow analysis (MFA), a function of environmental pressure represented by ma-terial input and consumption was built, and the relative importance of the driving factors in the dynamic changes of the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure in Lanzhou City during 1990?2004 was analyzed by adopting the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) model combined with the‘refined Laspeyres’ method. The results showed that the degree of direct material input (DMI) and domestic material consumption (DMC) had an upward trend with the rapid economic development. Meanwhile, the environmental pressure in Lanzhou City was mainly caused by the material resources input in the process of economic growth. The population factor and economic growth factor had a positive effect on environmental pressure, but technological factor had a negative effect on it. However, the population factor had a less important impact on the increase of this environmental pressure than economic growth and technological factor.