CAJ | 학술논문

预测水库流域未来降雨量变化趋势，可为水库兴利调度、资源开发利用提供科学的决策依据。采用 Mann -Kendall 参数秩次相关检验法对高关水库流域未来降雨变化趋势进行了分析，结果表明：未来一段时间内，高关水库流域降雨量呈下降趋势，流域未来1月和7月的降雨量变化趋势的随机性成分可能很大，应采取必要对策和措施。
예측수고류역미래강우량변화추세，가위수고흥리조도、자원개발이용제공과학적결책의거。채용 Mann -Kendall 삼수질차상관검험법대고관수고류역미래강우변화추세진행료분석，결과표명：미래일단시간내，고관수고류역강우량정하강추세，류역미래1월화7월적강우량변화추세적수궤성성분가능흔대，응채취필요대책화조시。
The prediction for the future precipitation change trend of reservoir watershed can provide scientific basis for the development and utilization of reservoir resources and reservoir scheduling.The parameters of Mann-Kendall rank cor-relation check method are used to analyze the future rainfall change trend of Gaoguan Reservoir basin.The results show that in the future period of time,the rainfall in Gaoguan Reservoir watershed would decrease,the randomness of the fu-ture rainfall changes in January and July may be large,and the necessary measures should be taken.