CAJ | 학술논문

福岛核事故发生后，我国要求开展外部事件对核电厂影响的评价，“十二五”核安全规划要求2015年之前开展外部事件概率安全分析工作。地震是需要重点评价的外部事件之一，而地震易损性分析是地震概率安全评价（SPSA）的一项重要内容，易损性分析模型是地震易损性分析的基础。本文介绍了地震易损性的概念，研究了美国核管会（NRC）和电力研究院（EPRI）推荐的地震易损性模型，并从数学上对该模型进行推导。给出易损性模型的应用实例，讨论随机性和不确定性对易损度的影响。结果表明，进行易损性分析时，需拥有丰富的知识和经验，以减少不确定性，使得到的分析结果更接近实际。
복도핵사고발생후，아국요구개전외부사건대핵전엄영향적평개，“십이오”핵안전규화요구2015년지전개전외부사건개솔안전분석공작。지진시수요중점평개적외부사건지일，이지진역손성분석시지진개솔안전평개（SPSA）적일항중요내용，역손성분석모형시지진역손성분석적기출。본문개소료지진역손성적개념，연구료미국핵관회（NRC）화전력연구원（EPRI）추천적지진역손성모형，병종수학상대해모형진행추도。급출역손성모형적응용실례，토론수궤성화불학정성대역손도적영향。결과표명，진행역손성분석시，수옹유봉부적지식화경험，이감소불학정성，사득도적분석결과경접근실제。
After the Fukushima nuclear accident ,the impact evaluation of nuclear power plants resulted from external events is required in China ,and the 12th Five-Year Plan for Nuclear Safety also demands that the probability safety assessment of external events shall be developed before 2015 .The earthquake is one of the most important external events which are essentially evaluated ,and the seismic fragility is a key element in seis-mic PSA , while the fragility model is the basis of seismic fragility analysis .In this paper , the concept of seismic fragility was introduced , the seismic fragility model recommended by NRC and EPRI was studied ,and the fragility model was derived . Then ,the application example of the fragility model was given ,and the effects of fragil-ity due to randomness and uncertainty were discussed .The results show that a wealth of knowledge and experience is useful for the fragility analysis ,which would reduce the uncertainty and gain access to practice .