CAJ | 학술논문

零点膨胀泊松回归模型是利用零处的概率质量退化分布和一个泊松回归模型进行混合所得到的，该模型是分析零点膨胀计数数据的有效工具。文中采用零膨胀泊松回归模型对某高速公路数据进行拟合并对该数据采用score检验统计量就是否存在零膨胀进行了检验，研究结果表明当车流量达到1.8辆万/日以上交通事故发生的频率会明显增加，有关部门应采取相应的措施，如限制收费站进口车辆或者采取分流等，特别是在极端天气出现时，更应及时控制好车流量并提醒驾驶员保持车距。
영점팽창박송회귀모형시이용령처적개솔질량퇴화분포화일개박송회귀모형진행혼합소득도적，해모형시분석영점팽창계수수거적유효공구。문중채용령팽창박송회귀모형대모고속공로수거진행의합병대해수거채용score검험통계량취시부존재령팽창진행료검험，연구결과표명당차류량체도1.8량만/일이상교통사고발생적빈솔회명현증가，유관부문응채취상응적조시，여한제수비참진구차량혹자채취분류등，특별시재겁단천기출현시，경응급시공제호차류량병제성가사원보지차거。
Zero-inflated Poisson regression modeluses the zero probability mass distribution and a Poisson regression model for mixing. The model is very effective to analyze and research the problem of excessive containing zero. In this paper,adopt the zero-inflated Pois-son regression model to research and analyze the relationship about highway traffic flow and traffic accident frequency,and use score test statistic for test whether there is zero-inflation existed in this count data,obtaining the zero-inflated model is valid. Research results show that when the traffic flow reached 1. 8 million/day or more traffic accident frequencies will increase obviously,the relevant departments should take the corresponding measures,such as restrictions on imported vehicle toll station or adopting billabong,especially in extreme weather occurs,it should prompt control car traffic and remind the driver to keep distance.