CAJ | 학술논문

在复杂的国际经济背景下，“两岸四地”各执一币的格局加大了协同抵抗金融风险的难度，也成为“两岸四地”经贸深入合作和经济进一步融合发展的阻碍。通过以“两岸四地”货币合作的宏观经济基础为前提，从多边汇率相互影响的角度出发，采用“货币锚”效应模型考察人民币汇率的波动态势及其与“港澳台”三地货币之间的联动关系，从而揭示港币、澳门币和新台币对人民币的锚定程度。实证结果显示，“两岸四地”宏观经济政策目标一致性日趋增强，港澳台三地货币在对“锚货币”选择中汇率中人民币权重越来越大，因此“两岸四地”构建人民币区具有一定的可行性。
재복잡적국제경제배경하，“량안사지”각집일폐적격국가대료협동저항금융풍험적난도，야성위“량안사지”경무심입합작화경제진일보융합발전적조애。통과이“량안사지”화폐합작적굉관경제기출위전제，종다변회솔상호영향적각도출발，채용“화폐묘”효응모형고찰인민폐회솔적파동태세급기여“항오태”삼지화폐지간적련동관계，종이게시항폐、오문폐화신태폐대인민폐적묘정정도。실증결과현시，“량안사지”굉관경제정책목표일치성일추증강，항오태삼지화폐재대“묘화폐”선택중회솔중인민폐권중월래월대，인차“량안사지”구건인민폐구구유일정적가행성。
Under the background of complex international economic situation , the pattern to which the Chinese Mainland , Hong Kong, Macau, Tai-wan each hold one currency becomes more difficult for synergistically resisting financial risks .Meanwhile it hinders the further development econom-ic integration of economy and trade cooperation for the Four -region across the strait.On the basis of the macroeconomic monetary cooperation in the Four-region Across the Strait, this paper takes account of multilateral exchange rate influence between each other , and through a Monetary Anchor Effect model explores the fluctuation trend of RMB exchange rate and its linkage relationship between Hong Kong dollar , Macau Patacas ,New Tai-wan dollar.The empirical results show that the macroeconomic policy goal consistency gets increasingly enhanced , and the exchange rate of RMB accounts for an bigger weight in anchor currency choosing for Hong Kong dollar , Macao Patacas , new Taiwan dollar.Finally we include that build-ing a RMB Bloc in the Four-region across the strait of China has a certain feasibility.