CAJ | 학술논문

本文从理论上系统地阐述了税制结构影响经济增长的路径和机理。并在此基础上，利用1994～2011年的时间序列数据，实证分析了1994年分税制改革以来我国税制结构与经济增长的关系。实证结果表明，在我国现行的税制下，直接税对经济增长的影响非常有限，而间接税对经济增长具有正向促进作用。我国的税制改革及结构调整，应以转变政府职能理论及税收中性理论为指导，以经济结构调整和转变发展方式为主线，合理安排直接税与间接税的比重，使整个税收对市场的影响逐步转为中性，以充分发挥市场机制对资源的基础性配置作用，促进我国经济的持续健康发展。
본문종이론상계통지천술료세제결구영향경제증장적로경화궤리。병재차기출상，이용1994～2011년적시간서렬수거，실증분석료1994년분세제개혁이래아국세제결구여경제증장적관계。실증결과표명，재아국현행적세제하，직접세대경제증장적영향비상유한，이간접세대경제증장구유정향촉진작용。아국적세제개혁급결구조정，응이전변정부직능이론급세수중성이론위지도，이경제결구조정화전변발전방식위주선，합리안배직접세여간접세적비중，사정개세수대시장적영향축보전위중성，이충분발휘시장궤제대자원적기출성배치작용，촉진아국경제적지속건강발전。
This paper systematically elaborates the path and mechanism in theory that the tax structure affects the economic growth . By using the relevant macro -economic and tax data from 1994 to 2011 years ,we conduct an empirical analysis about the relationship be-tween the tax structure and economic growth in China since the 1994's Tax Sharing Reform .The result shows that the indirect tax can pro-mote economic growth . however ,the influence of the direct tax is very limited .Therefore , the new round of China's tax system reform should be guided by the transformation government function theory and tax neutral theory ,with economic restructuring and transformation of the mode of development as the main line .Through the reasonable arrangement on the proportion of direct tax and indirect tax ,we can make the whole tax's influence on the market gradually neutral .As a result , the market mechanism can play the key role as the basic con-figuration way and help China's economy to achieve a sustainable and healthy development .