CAJ | 학술논문

以往的灰色GM （1，1）优化模型往往忽略了灰度模型随时间变化的灰色量和灰色过程这一重点，其中的灰色作用量是时间的线性函数，传统的模型把其看为不变常数，而对时间的精度影响没做深层次的考虑，建模时较少的考虑时间相关度和灰作用量的影响，势必会影响预测精度，造成模型效果欠佳，故本文尝试对这两个因素分别建立优化GM （1，1）模型，即引入基于时间的加权R-GM （1，1）模型和用灰作用量b1＋ b2 k替代b的K-GM （1，1）模型，并对实例数据进行分析，取得了较好的拟合与预测能力。
이왕적회색GM （1，1）우화모형왕왕홀략료회도모형수시간변화적회색량화회색과정저일중점，기중적회색작용량시시간적선성함수，전통적모형파기간위불변상수，이대시간적정도영향몰주심층차적고필，건모시교소적고필시간상관도화회작용량적영향，세필회영향예측정도，조성모형효과흠가，고본문상시대저량개인소분별건립우화GM （1，1）모형，즉인입기우시간적가권R-GM （1，1）모형화용회작용량b1＋ b2 k체대b적K-GM （1，1）모형，병대실례수거진행분석，취득료교호적의합여예측능력。
In the past ,T he Grey GM (1 ,1) optimization model tends to ignore the key a-bout the gray quantity of gray model with time-varying and grey process .The Grey action is a linear function of time ,traditional models to look at it as a fixed constant ,and the effect on the accuracy of the time did not do in-depth consideration ,w hen structure model less consid-er about time correlation or the influence about Grey action ,and certainly affect the predic-tion accuracy ,these effects will cause a poor model ,therefore ,this paper attempts to opti-mize these two factors are building an optimized GM (1 ,1) model .Introducing R-GM (1 ,1) model which based on the time-weighted and K-GM (1 ,1) model which the gray action b re-placed by ,and the analysis of the instance data is presented .A better fitting and predictive a-bility are obtained .