CAJ | 학술논문

为阐明2000-2013年贵州省植被覆盖变化情况，基于归一化植被指数（NDVI）数据，采用一元线性回归、标准差分析和 Hurst指数等时间序列统计分析法，对贵州省 NDVI变化时空格局和发展趋势进行了研究。结果表明：1）贵州省 NDVI总体呈从东向西依次递减。2）近14年 NDVI呈逐渐增加的趋势，年均NDVI为0．605，主要集中在0．6～0．7。其变化可分为5个阶段，且在2013年达到峰值，为0．635；东部和西部NDVI相对稳定，中部地区波动较为明显。其中，NDVI略有增加的区域主要分布在贵州省的西部和东北部、包括毕节市、六盘水市、黔西南州、遵义市和铜仁市，略有降低的区域主要分布在贵州省中部和南部，包括黔东南州、黔南州和遵义市西部。3）未来贵州省大部分地区 NDVI将会在短期内保持现有的发展趋势，局部地区未来变化呈反向趋势。结论：总体上贵州省植被覆盖状况呈逐渐变好趋势且在未来短期内将持续。
위천명2000-2013년귀주성식피복개변화정황，기우귀일화식피지수（NDVI）수거，채용일원선성회귀、표준차분석화 Hurst지수등시간서렬통계분석법，대귀주성 NDVI변화시공격국화발전추세진행료연구。결과표명：1）귀주성 NDVI총체정종동향서의차체감。2）근14년 NDVI정축점증가적추세，년균NDVI위0．605，주요집중재0．6～0．7。기변화가분위5개계단，차재2013년체도봉치，위0．635；동부화서부NDVI상대은정，중부지구파동교위명현。기중，NDVI략유증가적구역주요분포재귀주성적서부화동북부、포괄필절시、륙반수시、검서남주、준의시화동인시，략유강저적구역주요분포재귀주성중부화남부，포괄검동남주、검남주화준의시서부。3）미래귀주성대부분지구 NDVI장회재단기내보지현유적발전추세，국부지구미래변화정반향추세。결론：총체상귀주성식피복개상황정축점변호추세차재미래단기내장지속。
The spatial-temporal change and trend of normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) were analyzed by linear regression,standard deviation and Hurst index methods to expound the vegetation coverage change in Guizhou during 2000-2013.The results showed that:1 )The NDVI decreases successively from east to west overall;2 )The NDVI shows the gradual increase trend with 0.605 of annual average and the NDVI focuses on 0.6~0.7 mainly during 2000-2013.0f which,the area with slightly increased NDVI mainly distributes in western and northeastern of Guizhou including Bijie City, Liupanshui City,Qianxinan Prefecture,Zunyi City and Tongren City and the area with slightly decreased NDVI mainly distributes in Central and Southern of Guizhou including Qiandongnan Prefecture,Qiannan Prefecture and Western of Zunyi City;3)In the future,the NDVI of the most areas of Guizhou will keep the existing development trend in the short term but some areas will show the reverse trend. In conclusion,in the future,the vegetation coverage status will indicates the gradual increment trend in the short term in Guizhou.