CAJ | 학술논문

输电网的安全运行是输电网企业的主要需求，输电网运行的安全性事故将造成输电网企业经济和社会效益的严重损失。输电网企业期望输电网运行中能够经受可能的扰动，以保证电网和设备的正常运行，从而不中断输电服务。通过分析输电网利益相关者的需求满足程度，可以评估输电网运行的整体状态。基于输电网运行的随机特性，采用风险评估方法，构建安全性需求评估指标集，提出安全性风险评估指标的计算模型和方法。相比较传统电网安全性研究，引入情景分析方法，将在某种运行方式下输电网发生某种元件故障或不发生元件故障作为一个情景，综合考虑了多种随机因素，建立情景的概率模型；在特定情景下研究电网的各类安全问题，通过安全判据指标综合判断情景的安全性，进而采用最小控制代价衡量干扰对输电网运行造成的后果；通过抽样方法，得到各情景发生的概率和后果，计算风险价值、条件风险价值指标，以评估系统的安全风险。
수전망적안전운행시수전망기업적주요수구，수전망운행적안전성사고장조성수전망기업경제화사회효익적엄중손실。수전망기업기망수전망운행중능구경수가능적우동，이보증전망화설비적정상운행，종이불중단수전복무。통과분석수전망이익상관자적수구만족정도，가이평고수전망운행적정체상태。기우수전망운행적수궤특성，채용풍험평고방법，구건안전성수구평고지표집，제출안전성풍험평고지표적계산모형화방법。상비교전통전망안전성연구，인입정경분석방법，장재모충운행방식하수전망발생모충원건고장혹불발생원건고장작위일개정경，종합고필료다충수궤인소，건립정경적개솔모형；재특정정경하연구전망적각류안전문제，통과안전판거지표종합판단정경적안전성，진이채용최소공제대개형량간우대수전망운행조성적후과；통과추양방법，득도각정경발생적개솔화후과，계산풍험개치、조건풍험개치지표，이평고계통적안전풍험。
The core requirement of transmission network enterprise lies in the safe operation of transmission network. Failure in satisfying this requirement will result in disastrous loss on economic and social benefits.Hence,transmission network is expected to possess the capability of enduring possible disturbances in order to ensure the normal operation of grid and equipment,as well as avoid the power transmission interruptions.Through the analysis on the requirement satisfaction of transmission system stakeholders,the overall status of transmission network operation can be evaluated.Based on the stochastic characteristics of transmission network operation,this paper used a risk assessment method to construct evaluation indices set for the security requirement,and proposed the calculation model and method of security risk assessment indicators.Compared with the traditional researches on grid security,a scenario analysis approach was introduced.In detail, breakdown or normal operation of certain components under certain specific operating modes was modeled as a scenario,and a probabilistic model for the scenario was constructed with taking into consideration a variety of random factors.All kinds of security problems were studied in the specific scenarios.The security of the situations could be evaluated comprehensively according to the safety criterion indices;therefore a minimum expense of control could be adopted to measure the consequence of the disturbance on the transmission network operation.Through sampling method,the probability and consequence of each situation occurrence could be acquired;and with the assistance of calculating value at risk and conditional value-at-risk,the security risk of transmission network could be evaluated properly.