CAJ | 학술논문

负荷预测的精确与否直接影响智能电网规划等诸多决策问题，而在一些经济欠发达的地区，由于存在一定比例的冲击性负荷而使得负荷具有较大的波动性，对负荷预测精度存在一定的影响，而常用的负荷预测方法在处理这类负荷时均存在一定的缺陷。提出基于Savitzky-Golay滤波器的冲击性负荷短期预测方法，先对冲击负荷数据进行预处理，运用处理后的数据进行负荷组合预测，与未处理数据的预测结果进行对比，结果可见该方法可以有效地消除冲击负荷对负荷预测的影响，提高负荷预测的精度，简单易懂，使用方便，具有较好的实用价值。
부하예측적정학여부직접영향지능전망규화등제다결책문제，이재일사경제흠발체적지구，유우존재일정비례적충격성부하이사득부하구유교대적파동성，대부하예측정도존재일정적영향，이상용적부하예측방법재처리저류부하시균존재일정적결함。제출기우Savitzky-Golay려파기적충격성부하단기예측방법，선대충격부하수거진행예처리，운용처리후적수거진행부하조합예측，여미처리수거적예측결과진행대비，결과가견해방법가이유효지소제충격부하대부하예측적영향，제고부하예측적정도，간단역동，사용방편，구유교호적실용개치。
The accuracy of load forecast directly affects the plan of smart grid and many other problems. In some economically underdeveloped areas,due to the impact load with larger volatility,which has a certain influence on the accuracy of load forecasting, but the common load forecasting methods in dealing with this kind of load have some defects. In this paper, a short-term load forecasting method based on Savitzky-Golay filter is presented.We use the processed data to do load forecasting,and compare with the untreated data forecast results.As a result,the method based on Savitzky-Golay can effectively eliminate the influence of impact load on load forecasting and improve the accuracy of load forecasting.Also,the method is easy to understand and use, and has good practical value.