灾害学
災害學
재해학
JOURNAL OF CATASTROPHOLOGY
2014年
4期
220-223,229
,共5页
古安川%夏军强%李洁%田庆奇
古安川%夏軍彊%李潔%田慶奇
고안천%하군강%리길%전경기
经济发展%年生产总值%洪灾损失%主成分分析法%河南%山东
經濟髮展%年生產總值%洪災損失%主成分分析法%河南%山東
경제발전%년생산총치%홍재손실%주성분분석법%하남%산동
economic development%Gross Domestic Product%flood loss%Principal Component Analysis%Henan province%Shandong province
选取河南、山东两省为研究对象,将地区年生产总值作为经济发展的主要指标进行研究;采用主成分分析法,计算了河南省2003-2011年的4个洪灾损失影响因子数据,认为地区年生产总值在第一主成分上有较大的荷载,且与洪灾损失呈正相关;然后对河南、山东两省2006-2012年的年生产总值与洪灾损失进行分析,进一步验证了主成分分析法得到的洪灾损失与地区年生产总值增长之间的关系,即:随地区生产总值逐年增加,经济快速发展,导致洪灾发生时造成的直接经济损失也随之增加。
選取河南、山東兩省為研究對象,將地區年生產總值作為經濟髮展的主要指標進行研究;採用主成分分析法,計算瞭河南省2003-2011年的4箇洪災損失影響因子數據,認為地區年生產總值在第一主成分上有較大的荷載,且與洪災損失呈正相關;然後對河南、山東兩省2006-2012年的年生產總值與洪災損失進行分析,進一步驗證瞭主成分分析法得到的洪災損失與地區年生產總值增長之間的關繫,即:隨地區生產總值逐年增加,經濟快速髮展,導緻洪災髮生時造成的直接經濟損失也隨之增加。
선취하남、산동량성위연구대상,장지구년생산총치작위경제발전적주요지표진행연구;채용주성분분석법,계산료하남성2003-2011년적4개홍재손실영향인자수거,인위지구년생산총치재제일주성분상유교대적하재,차여홍재손실정정상관;연후대하남、산동량성2006-2012년적년생산총치여홍재손실진행분석,진일보험증료주성분분석법득도적홍재손실여지구년생산총치증장지간적관계,즉:수지구생산총치축년증가,경제쾌속발전,도치홍재발생시조성적직접경제손실야수지증가。
The research into the influence of economic development on flood damage is conducted in this pa-per,and the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP)is taken as a major indicator of economic development in the Henan and Shandong provinces.Four factors relevant to flood loss in Henan from 2003 to 201 1 are evaluated using the principal component analysis,which indicates the annual GDP in a region is strongly correlated with the corre-sponding flood damage,with the first principal component being a large load.The data of the annual GDP and the flood loss in Henan and Shandong from 2006 to 2012 are then analyzed,which verifies the relationship between the GDP growth and the flood damage obtains from the principal component analysis.It is confirmed that the direct eco-nomic loss due to floods would increase with the rapid economic development in a region.