CAJ | 학술논문

落石灾害危险性应从灾害发生可能性与灾害致灾严重性进行评价，并以落石致灾概率表征致灾可能性，以人员损失和经济损失表征致灾严重性；以落石崩落、落石运动至威胁区域的可能性研究成果为基础，通过分析致灾过程，将落石致灾概率分为危岩崩落概率、落石到达威胁区域概率、落石击中承灾体概率三部分，分别进行概率评价，并提出了量化算法；借鉴大坝、滑坡相关研究结果，结合落石灾害自身的特点，分析了承灾体的易损性，设定落石灾害可接受风险水平，提出了落石灾害经济及生命可接受风险建议值；应用本概率评价方法于重庆万州菜地沟危岩段，能够量化判定落石致灾危险程度，在工程应用中可有效评估落石灾害，并为后期危岩防治提供了决策基础。
낙석재해위험성응종재해발생가능성여재해치재엄중성진행평개，병이낙석치재개솔표정치재가능성，이인원손실화경제손실표정치재엄중성；이낙석붕락、낙석운동지위협구역적가능성연구성과위기출，통과분석치재과정，장낙석치재개솔분위위암붕락개솔、낙석도체위협구역개솔、낙석격중승재체개솔삼부분，분별진행개솔평개，병제출료양화산법；차감대패、활파상관연구결과，결합낙석재해자신적특점，분석료승재체적역손성，설정낙석재해가접수풍험수평，제출료낙석재해경제급생명가접수풍험건의치；응용본개솔평개방법우중경만주채지구위암단，능구양화판정낙석치재위험정도，재공정응용중가유효평고낙석재해，병위후기위암방치제공료결책기출。
The evaluation of rockfall hazard would be consist of the possibility of rockfall causing hazard and rockfall hazard seriousness,which will be characterized by the probability of rockfall death of human beings,and e-conomic losses.Based on the current research of possibility of the dangerous rock collapsing and the possibility of the rockfall reaching the threatened area,the probability of rockfall will be calculated by rockfall’s probability a-bout caving from the slope,reaching the threatened area,hitting on the stricken body.Though probabilistic analy-sis,it will be a quantitative evaluation method.Combining the risk level study on dam and landslide with the char-acteristics of rockfall,the method will analyze the vulnerability of stricken body,set the acceptable risk level of rockfall hazard and give the proposal risk level of victims and economic losses.Applied to the rockfall hazard evalu-ation at Caidigou rockfall point of Wanzhou in Chongqing,the method shows that it can quantify degree of rockfall dangerousness,solve the problem of how to evaluate the rockfall hazard and provide basis for rockfall mitigation.