CAJ | 학술논문

近年来，西方发达国家愈发重视对城市安全评价研究，并且扩展至对“国家安全度”的评价研究。在国内，许多学者也逐渐对“安全城市”评价指标体系进行研究。然而，对于在我国的省或直辖市一级，即相当欧美的州一级地区的安全评价指标体系却鲜有研究人员涉猎。该文基于层次分析法对中国各省市的安全评估进行研究，以定性和定量相结合、系统化、层次化的分析方法，结合软件开发，实用有效地处理这类的复杂问题。通过层次分析法并运用有关的统计数据和专家评分，初步获得了中国各省市安全评估的基本情况，得出由于西部地区天气干燥、现代化发展进程较慢，导致在火灾与交通风险相对较大。由于统计数据有限，我们的统计评估是基于生产、交通及火灾事故数据。
근년래，서방발체국가유발중시대성시안전평개연구，병차확전지대“국가안전도”적평개연구。재국내，허다학자야축점대“안전성시”평개지표체계진행연구。연이，대우재아국적성혹직할시일급，즉상당구미적주일급지구적안전평개지표체계각선유연구인원섭작。해문기우층차분석법대중국각성시적안전평고진행연구，이정성화정량상결합、계통화、층차화적분석방법，결합연건개발，실용유효지처리저류적복잡문제。통과층차분석법병운용유관적통계수거화전가평분，초보획득료중국각성시안전평고적기본정황，득출유우서부지구천기간조、현대화발전진정교만，도치재화재여교통풍험상대교대。유우통계수거유한，아문적통계평고시기우생산、교통급화재사고수거。
In recent years,the western developed countries pay more attentions on urban safety evaluation studies.They further extend the studies into the field of national safety.In China,many scholars gradually focus on the research of safe city index evaluation system.However,few researchers do the similar studies on the level of provinces or megacities which is equivalent to the state in Europe and America.Our study proposes a method based on AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)to evaluate the safety of China province and megacity.By using AHP and software developed,this kind of complex problems can be handled practicably and effectively by using a combina-tion of qualitative and quantitative analysis method.Through the use of AHP with the relevant statistical data and expert ratings,the basic results of Chinese provinces’safety evaluation are preliminarily achieved.We get the con-clusion that the dry weather and the poor modernization in the western region result in a high risk of fire and traffic. Because of the limited statistical data,the evaluation result is based on the data in fields of production,traffic and fi re .