CAJ | 학술논문

利用中国752个气象站降水、气温资料，选择标准化降水蒸散发指数SPEI为干旱指标，采用Intensity analysis方法，从时间间隔、干旱等级变化和转换三个层面分析了1961-2010年中国气象干旱变化规律。结果表明：1961-2010年中国气象干旱的变化速率趋于上升，总变化面积由60％上升至80％以上，1980-1990年代、1990年代至21世纪初两个时间段的年平均变化相对于整个时间段较快。1960-1980年代干旱变化较为平缓，1960-1970年代干旱等级的转换主要以中等以下的干旱等级之间的转换为主导；1970-1980年代以无干旱与轻微、中等和严重干旱等级之间的相互转换为主导。1980年代至21世纪初干旱有加重的趋势，1980-1990年代以无干旱向极端干旱的转换为主导；1990年代至21世纪初中等以下的干旱向严重和极端干旱的转变成为了主导，而严重干旱则以向极端干旱转换为主导，极端干旱以向中等干旱转换为主导。
이용중국752개기상참강수、기온자료，선택표준화강수증산발지수SPEI위간한지표，채용Intensity analysis방법，종시간간격、간한등급변화화전환삼개층면분석료1961-2010년중국기상간한변화규률。결과표명：1961-2010년중국기상간한적변화속솔추우상승，총변화면적유60％상승지80％이상，1980-1990년대、1990년대지21세기초량개시간단적년평균변화상대우정개시간단교쾌。1960-1980년대간한변화교위평완，1960-1970년대간한등급적전환주요이중등이하적간한등급지간적전환위주도；1970-1980년대이무간한여경미、중등화엄중간한등급지간적상호전환위주도。1980년대지21세기초간한유가중적추세，1980-1990년대이무간한향겁단간한적전환위주도；1990년대지21세기초중등이하적간한향엄중화겁단간한적전변성위료주도，이엄중간한칙이향겁단간한전환위주도，겁단간한이향중등간한전환위주도。
Based on daily meteorological data from 752 stations in China from 1961 to 2010,and by using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)as drought index,the variation rules of meteorological drought in China are analyzed by using Intensity Analysis method in three levels as time interval,drought grades and transition.Results show that the changing rate of meteorological drought in China was accelerating from 1961 to 2010,with the total changing area rising from 60%to 80%.The mean changing rate of 1980s to 1990s and 1990s to 2000s was faster than that of the whole time interval.While the changing rate of the other time intervals was rela-tively slower than that of the whole time interval.Drought changed gently from 1960s to 1980s,with the targeted transitions being transitions among drought under moderate grade from 1960s to 1970s and transitions among drought of light,moderate and severe grade from 1970s to 1980s.Drought had an aggravate tendency from 1980s to 2000s, with the targeted transitions being transitions from no drought to drought of other grades from 1980s to 1990s and transitions from severe drought to extreme drought,from extreme drought to moderate drought and from drought un-der moderate grade to severe and extreme drought from 1990s to 2000s.