CAJ | 학술논문

基于风险理论，从水资源系统的角度剖析流域干旱风险的构成，分别从降水、用水和水利工程调节的角度讨论构建干旱致灾因子的危险性指标、干旱承灾体的暴露性指标以及干旱孕灾环境的脆弱性指标，建立流域干旱风险评价方法框架，并以漳卫河流域为例进行了应用研究。评价结果表明，漳卫河流域13个评价单元中，有4个评价单元属于高风险区，3个单元属于低风险区，其他6个单元为中等风险区。各评价单元的干旱危险性因子指标值差别不大，流域干旱高风险区的主要贡献因素是较大的用水需求和缺乏稳定的供水水源。
기우풍험이론，종수자원계통적각도부석류역간한풍험적구성，분별종강수、용수화수리공정조절적각도토론구건간한치재인자적위험성지표、간한승재체적폭로성지표이급간한잉재배경적취약성지표，건립류역간한풍험평개방법광가，병이장위하류역위례진행료응용연구。평개결과표명，장위하류역13개평개단원중，유4개평개단원속우고풍험구，3개단원속우저풍험구，기타6개단원위중등풍험구。각평개단원적간한위험성인자지표치차별불대，류역간한고풍험구적주요공헌인소시교대적용수수구화결핍은정적공수수원。
Based on the risk theory,the composition of drought risk is firstly analyzed from the perspective of water resources system.The hazard index of drought-inducing factors,the exposure index of drought-disaster bear-ers and the vulnerability index of disaster-formative environment are then established from the perspective of precip-itation,water use and water resources projects,respectively.A framework of drought risk assessment method is thus proposed and it is finally applied in Zhangwei River Basin.The result shows that there are four evaluation units of the total 13 belonging to the high-risk zones,two evaluation units belonging to low-risk zones and seven others of middle-risk zones.All of the four high-risk zones are distributed in the plain area.The value of hazard indices of each evaluation unit shows little difference,which indicates that,the main contribution factors of drought high-risk zones are large water consumption and lack of steady water supply.